Friday, August 21, 2009

MLB: Major Shakeup in Races Changes Stretch Drive Prospects


The 2009 Baseball Pennant Race: Seven Weekends to Go


We believe we see the American League Playoffs setup. The New York Yankees will have home field advantage as the team with the best record. The Los Angeles Angels will host the other first round playoffs. Because rules prohibit Wild Cards from playing the champ of their division, Boston will travel to Anaheim. The Detroit Tigers will be the first team to step up to bat in post season play in the new Yankees stadium.

Two races are still active in the American League, the Central Division and the Wild Card. While Detroit appears to have the upper hand over Chicago, the Tigers have more proven consistent starting pitching, solid fielding, and probably just enough offense to get them to round one. The addition of Aubrey Huff could pay huge dividends. Huff gives them an instant RBI threat they badly needed, but though he might be seen as a 1B/DH type, he can also fill in at third base and left field. Against right handed starting pitching, Manager Jim Leyland will surely find a spot for Huff in the middle of the lineup and what a great bonus it is to have an everyday quality player who can also help some of the vets get needed days off down the stretch. Huff is also darned hungry for his first shot for postseason. Chicago can play brilliant baseball at times, but perhaps what happened with Mark Buehrle’s rendezvous with baseball history serves as a metaphor for the team’s performance this year. Nothing tops perfection, and Buehrle did pitch a perfect game. Not only that, he went deep into his next start holding the opponent hitless. Stuff happened, and he wound up losing the subsequent start. The White Sox could have an “X” factor with Jake Peavy. In what was one of the most unusual player moves, the team traded for the former San Diego Padres stopper while on the disabled list knowing he would not be ready for business for at least a couple weeks after completing the trade. Peavy is still on the disabled list making rehab starts for AAA Charlotte, but the Chicago Sun Times reports rehab will take longer than expected with seven weeks to go, how many starts can they project Peavy could make and will he be in top form able to hold the opponent down for six full innings? Acquiring Alex Rios with 64 RBI’s so far this year provides some outfield depth and more kick in the batting order. For pennant race drama, nothing could work out better than what lies ahead for the Chicago/Detroit matchup. Chicago hosts Detroit the next to last weekend of the season then travels to finish against Detroit the last weekend setting up the possibility the race will be decided in a head-to-head match up that final weekend. It doesn’t get better than that!!!

The Wild Card race looks like it’s between the Boston Red Sox and the Texas Rangers. While it looked to be the Red Sox being in the driver’s seat, Texas pulled even this week but now stand one game back. Boston made numerous mid-summer moves to sure up their lineup but having major starters injured and the John Smoltz experiment turning into a horrible failure leaves what was their perceived strength now their big question mark. Vic Martinez adds some of that ol’ deep depth on offense behind the plate, at first base, and at DH. Meanwhile, the Rangers are a young team still growing finding their potential. Experience favors the Red Sox.

This weekend matches up the Red Sox and Yankees at Fenway Park. The Red Sox take the series, they will surely look like a serious playoff rival. They’ll play in New York again the next to last weekend. While the Yankees might have too many things under control to lose the division, the Sox can establish credibility and could work toward another Boston/New York showdown in the ACLS if everything falls their way.

The Tampa Bay Rays face both the Yankees and Red Sox. If they got hot and go on a hot streak, they could throw themselves into the Wild Card race or upset the balance at the top of the division. They’re four games behind the Sox in the Wild Card. Keep an eye on them. The can deliver real pain.

If there’s any thing left to say about the American League races, the Minnesota Twins? Nah! Well, if they go on a September tear which they are capable of doing….Most likely by the end of September the Twins will barely be a rumor in the Twin Cities. They’ll be too busy following the Brett Favre drama.

The late August summary of the National League sure looks different from early in the month. The Phillies and Dodgers were running away with the East and West with a robust Wild Card and Central race. The Philadelphia Phillies still look dominant with 6.5 game lead in the East, but what happened to the Dodgers who managed to hold down their lead without missing a step during the Manny Ramirez suspension early in the year. Now Dodger Blue looks like they could blow it with just a 3.5 game lead over the surging Colorado Rockies one of the hottest teams since the All-Star break. Meanwhile, the widest division lead baseball is now in the Central with the St. Louis Cardinals solidifying their fortunes with helpful additions to the Albert Pujois machine.

Assuming the Phillies, Cardinals, and Dodgers prevail, the Dodgers still have the best overall record but the other two division leaders are very close so it’s way too soon to speculate on home field possibilities. The big question for the National League is just how strong Colorado is. They’re two games ahead of the San Francisco Giants who’ve been the most consistent Wild Card possibility for most of the season. Atlanta and Florida are four games behind the Rockies, and the Cubs six games back. Perhaps then what happens in the West determines both the division and the Wild Card. So let’s look at Colorado and see what they face before the final weekend.

Go no further than this weekend. Colorado plays San Francisco at home. Dominating the Giants helps nail down their Wild Card lead. The Dodgers come to town next before they head for San Francisco next weekend. In the next three series, the Rockies have the power to seriously define their power in the 2009 Pennant Race. They travel to San Francisco for three games on September 14th and then face a possible playoff preview the next to last weekend when they host the St. Louis Cardinals. For the ultimate measure of drama for the West and Wild Card race, they’ll finish against the Dodgers to finish the year. Once again, here’s an active race that could be decided rival against rival the last weekend with a real possibility the winner gets the division, the loser will be the Wild Card.

The flip side of the story is how could the Dodgers have fallen to be so close to the Rockies? Compare their records since the All-Star break: the Dodgers are a mediocre 16-17 while the Rockies shine at 20-12. Beyond Chad Billingsley, who’s the stud starting pitcher the Dodgers can depend on down the stretch? Right fielder Andre Ethier leads the offense with 25 homers and 83 RBI’s followed by Matt Kemp and Casey Blake before getting to Manny Ramirez who has their 4th best slugging stats reduced by his time on suspension. One would perceive the Dodgers have plateaued and could be waiting to be had at this point. While they face home and away series against key rivals Colorado and San Francisco, the rest of their competition consists largely of Arizona, San Diego, Pittsburgh, and Washington, teams they should be able to dust off en route to October play.

The prospects would show the Dodgers and Rockies in the post season with the top spot to be determined. San Francisco must overcome one of those teams to get into the picture. Who would that be?

Atlanta and Florida are four games back in the Wild Card sweepstakes. Either team is capable of a dramatic surge. It’s still a legitimate race.

As always, nothing attracts more attention than a Boston/New York showdown which will have Fenway Park rumbling this weekend. We’ll see what happens and have something to talk about Monday morning.

No comments: