2009 Major League Baseball: Season Preview
American League
East
Boston
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay
American League
East
Boston
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay
Toronto
Baltimore
-
Central
Cleveland
Minnesota
Chicago White Sox
Detroit
Kansas City
-
West
Los Angeles Angels
Oakland
Texas
Seattle
Wild Card: New York Yankees
National League
East
New York Mets
Philadelphia
Florida
Atlanta
Washington
Central
Chicago Cubs
St. Louis
Milwaukee
Houston
Cincinnati
Pittsburgh
-
West
Los Angeles Dodgers
Arizona
Colorado
San Francisco
San Diego
Wild Card: Philadelphia
World Series: Boston defeats Chicago Cubs
American League
Wild Card: Philadelphia
World Series: Boston defeats Chicago Cubs
American League
East
It’s hard to imagine Tampa repeating their glory from the 2008 season, but last year it was hard to imagine them as a dominant franchise. They will not sneak up on anybody and are not likely to have so many players having career years. The Boston Red Sox came within a game of going to back-to-back World Series last year. If they stay healthy and their pitching holds, they still are probably the team to beat…BUT….the Yankees sure didn’t stand still in the offseason. First, they added starting pitching replacing retiring, Mike Mussina who finally won 20 games in ’08 with C.C. Sabathia who is poised to become one of the game’s most dominant pitchers who carried the Milwaukee Brewers down the stretch last September. Their second starter A.J. Burnett adds much needed depth to the rotation but traditionally has had a history of injuries. His health is crucial for the Yankee rotation to hold strong. Chien-Ming Wang and Andy Pettitte with Joba Chamberlain penciled in as the 5th guy round out the rotation. Very important note for Yankees fans, while excite is in order for signing C.C. Sabthia, how likely is it he can exceed the 20 win season retiring Mike Mussina gave them? Their pickup in victoriers will have to come from other places in the order. Mark Texeira replaces Jason Giambi at first base and should easily meet or exceed Giambi’s power numbers while providing more consistent on base stats and tremendously improving fielding on the right side of the infield. The Yankees have some major question marks. Are any of their outfielders truly imposing figures? Their bullpen should be adequate but stopper Mariano Rivera is another year older perhaps starting to show some wear. The real x-factor for the Yankees is Alex Rodriquez. That he has undergone hip surgery that supposedly will remove him from the lineup for up to 30 days is of some concern for their top hitter, The real concern is that additional surgery is likely at the end of the season meaning he will not be playing at 100% or something in his physique is a ticking time bomb. An unhealthy A-Rod offsets the gain of Texeira’s addition to the lineup.
The Toronto Blue Jays cut payroll and will pay on the field as result. They’ve lost starting pitching and their offense is young. If the Orioles catch fire and somehow manage to patch together some starting pitching, the Blue Jays could find life lonely north of the border.
Alas, the Baltimore Orioles are headed for their twelfth losing season and dead last for the second year in a row. There just isn’t any scenario yet that would extend any better hope, but the pieces are coming together for a better team in the future. They locked down their two all-star caliber players, Brian Roberts and Nick Martakis to long term contracts. Their top prospect, switch hitting catcher, Matt Wieters will surely join the major league club at some point during the season. In the meantime, Gregg Zaun will don the tolls of ignorance with a reputation as a tough competitor and good handler of pitchers. The biggest improvement for the Orioles is improved fielding with a gold glove quality shortstop, Cesar Izturis, and quite likely, Felix Pie playing left field. Surely, almost anyone at first base could be an improvement over Kevin Millar as a fielder but his clubhouse upbeat attitude and general humor was important to help boost morale on a team that could not produce winning baseball. Nothing can aid struggling pitching better than solid leather behind them. As talent develops and some could appear during the year, they can pitch with confidence they are covered behind them. This is the kind of foundation the team needs as young pitchers come of age in the minors and begin showing up in Baltimore perhaps later as the year progresses. Patience is the key, but the organization led by President Andy McPhail is looking toward the long range health of the club where after the team’s last successful season in 1997 was followed by years of quick fixes and band aids without addressing rebuilding the organization from top to bottom where homegrown talent can grow to form the nucleus of the big club.
Central
While we make our predictions for the AL Central, we do so with loads of disclaimers. We feel the Indians, Twins, and White Sox are all in the running. Detroit falls short in starting pitching. We do not believe any of the hype about Kansas City being this year’s Tampa Bay Rays.
The Cleveland Indians were classic underachievers in 2008, but are blessed with one of the sports top emerging stars with Grady Sizemore, an almost flawless fielder who hit 33 homeruns, 90 RBI, and adds speed with 38 stolen bases.
The Chicago White Sox fell short of the playoffs last year while being the dominant team in the AL Central in 2008. The high salary laden team lead by mad man manager Ozzie Guillen offers aging slugger Jim Thome, 34 home runs in ’08, but slugger, Paul Konerko suffered a significant drop off last year. Their starting rotation anchored by Mark Buehrle will count on continued growth from John Danks and Gavin Floyd with veterans Jose Contreras and Bartolo Colon filling out the staff.
Meanwhile, the Minnesota Twins continue to exploit winning baseball on the cheap thanks to a fine organization that continues to produce quality players capable of replacing top talent that exits for the big bucks available in the big city lights. Switch hitting catcher, Joe Mauer, anchors a lively lineup capable of making a shambles of any pitching staff. The Detroit Tigers suffered horribly to finally enjoy the big payoff in their World Series run in 2006??? After years of futility, they developed a young nucleus and added a handful of veterans to put them in championship form. The Tigers have a sound nucleus on offence with Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Guillen, and Magglio Ordonez. Center fielder, Curtis Granderson, is an emerging star who was held back by injuries beginning last last season. The Tigers need solid pitching to advance. Justin Verlander anchors a staff with two big salaries on the DL. Adding Dontrelle Willis proved a disastrous move for Detroit. Who replaces him? Does he have anything left? Jeremy Bonderman begins the season on the disabled list after a lost 2008 season. Where can manager, Jim Leyland, look for innings and wins from his rotation? The Tigers took a huge salary hit cutting Gary Sheffield. For whatever benefit Sheffield’s bat could provide lacking a place in the field and not being the best ambassador for club house chemistry sent him packing. If there’s a Cinderella team in 2009, some would point to the Kansas City Royals. Really? Is that not Cindy Poison, er ah, Sidney Ponson, the Aruban drunk showing as 4th starter on the depth chart?
West
The Los Angeles Angels at Anaheim or whatever name they use to establish their roost, it’s all Disneyland to us, will win the West convincingly as other teams are in various states of rebuilding not having the resources to contend.
Of them, the Texas Rangers might have the edge to finish in second with their strong offense but they still have questions to be answered on the mound. Center fielder, John Hamilton leads the attack. However, pitching is lead by veteran, Kevin Millwood, anchors the staff but has only one winning season since coming to the American league losing his last two season. Vicente Padilla has had winning seasons for Texas two out of the last three years with a strong 14-8 mark last year. Beyond those two, it’s hard to smile in the Dallas/Fort Worth area. Kris Benson is projected as their third pitcher but has not pitched for two years posting an 11-12 record in 2006 with the hapless Baltimore Orioles.
Who knows where the Oakland Athletics will finish, but they are often a team who is good at beating expectations. While Jason Giambi returns after pursuing the big city lights (and dollars) in New York, his bat could help but he offers little more than a small brick wall at first base that the opposition will hit around and over. Matt Holiday heads west from Colorado to man left field and be the team’s primary power threat having hit 25 or more homeruns in the last three years. They’ve also picked up shortstop, Orlando Cabrera. Beyond that, youthful enthusiasm will have to turn into skill and results but they have fewer question marks than Seattle.
The Seattle Mariners appeared on a roll at the end of the 2007 season maybe just an impact player or two away from great things in the land of Starbucks, Nordstrom’s, Microsoft, and general weirdness. Quickly, the Baltimore Orioles looked like highway robbers sending them Erik Beddard whose sassy mouth didn’t make any friends to begin with but missing the season with an arm injury made the whole thing look dreadful considering the Orioles acquired their centerfielder of the future, Adam Jones, all-star closer George Sherrill, and top pitching prospect, Chris Tillman in return. Their one obvious star, Ichiro Suzuki starts the season on the DL with a nasty digestive system infection. Ken Griffey comes home to possibly close out his career and pencil in more stats on the all-time top performer lists in right field, but he is not the same fellow who left the northwest with high hopes of magic years ago. As the season progresses fans will need to see a plan for the future.
National League
East
The Eastern division will be another shootout between the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies. It’s hard to believe the Mets will suffer another late season collapse to usher the Phillies into the postseason for a third year in a row. Here’s the bottom line, the Mets are an improved team. The Phillies are about the same. The Mets couldn’t close games last year, but this year add their closer and setup man. Francisco Rodriguez brings his record 62 saves from the California Angels to Citi Bank Field with J.J. Putz bridging the starters to Rodriguez. Perhaps the X-factor in the Mets favor is their new ballpark, Citi Bank field which has not gotten the hype new Yankees Stadium has received only taunts about a big bank in the age of the bailout buying the naming rights. It’s a lovely ballpark in its own right far less majestic than the new cathedral in the Bronx, but one in the tradition of Orioles Park at Camden Yards. Shea Stadium was one of the most hated facilities in all of sports. While fans will still have to contend with LaGuardia airport, they finally have a decent facility to call home. Time will tell as the weather warms up how the new stadium will play.
The Phillies lost a good outfielder with Pat Burrell taking his power and RBI’s to the AL East with Tampa. Replacing him will be Raul Ibanez who does not have Burrell’s homerun numbers, but Philadelphia’s cozy little playing field could solve that. Jayson Werth is also supposed to be the every day right fielder, but has never played more than 134 games in a season, his last year’s mark with the Phillies. Up to that point, he was essentially a part time player. Vet Matt Stairs is the left-handed backup in the outfield. He could play an important roll for team with some awesome starters but little depth beyond them.
Since their last division title in 2005, the Atlanta Braves have struggled to regain the winning formula which, quite honestly, consisted of a starting rotation with names like Glavine, Smoltz, and Maddux. Glavine headed to New York while Maddux went out west en route to retirement, but Glavine returned while Smoltz face arm surgery last year. In the off season, when John Smoltz signed with the Boston Red Sox, it looked like for the first time since the 1980’s, not one of the big three would be playing for the 2009 Braves. Glavine returns albeit on the disabled list to start 2009. So what do the Braves still have that resembles the team that won the NL East every season that concluded from 1991 – 2005?
Derek Lowe comes east from the Dodgers to anchor the starting rotation but only in 2002 with a 21-8 record with the Red Sox and 16-8 his second year with the Dodgers has he shown true #1 starter material. He’s a good bet to gobble up innings having started at least 32 starts since 2002. Following him is sophomore, Jair Jurrjens, 13-10 3.68 starter for the Braves in 2008. Javier Vazquez enters the Atlanta rotation from the Chicago White Sox where he had a strong 15-8, 3.74 ERA season in 2007, but has been slightly worse than a .500 pitcher over his entire career. He does chalk up innings with 32 or more starts since 2000.
Third baseman, Chipper Jones, holds down the offensive attack as the only offensive player left from the Braves’ glory years. In 2004, Jones started 137 games, his highest mark dropping off to 109, 110, 134, and 128 in subsequent years. Last years stats showed a gaudy .364 batting average but only 82 runs, 22 homers, and 75 RBI’s. Much concern must focus on right fielder, Jeff Francoeur who swatted 29 homeruns in his first full season, but has dropped off to just 11 last year with 71 RBI’s and 70 runs with a substandard .239 batting average playing 155 games in 2008. On the opposite side of the outfield in left field, Garrett Anderson, a 15 year veteran, comes east from the Angels whose on base percentage is his best attribute to help the Braves attack. Hopes are high for rookie center fielder, Jordan Schafer who rushed through the minors to reach the big show. This is the essence of the Braves offense.
The reality check on the Atlanta Braves says there are way too many if’s and maybe’s for Dixieland’s team to be in the post season chase.
Then there are the Florida Marlins, the team that the rest of baseball seems to pay more attention to than their hometown fans in Miami. Their low budget youthful team has a powerful up and coming starting rotation and potential, potential, potential all around the diamond. Three players showed great home run power: Hanley Ramirez, 34; Dan Uggla 32; and Jorge Cantu, 29.
If September of 2008 was a prediction of things to come for the Marlins, they could be a team to watch even if Dolphins Stadium lies almost empty. While a new Marlins stadium with a retractable roof where the Orange Bowl once stood could be ready to start the 2012 season barring any last minute legal hassles, their lease runs out at Dolphins stadium at the end of this year. The Dolphins and Miami Hurricanes want them out.
Alas, the Washington Nationals are still a ways away from serious contention and will finish in last place again but the pieces are pulling together for a good future. For starters, no team was more injury-riddled than the 2008 team. They’ve added a powerful homerun threat to play left field or first base with Adam Dunn. Ryan Zimmerman at 3rd returns healthy ready to play a full season. Nick Johnson was out for all but 38 games last year and also should be back full time at first base. Yes, there’s another full-time player returning who was gone for most of the 2008 season, Ronnie Belliard at second who will form the experienced double play combo with Christian Guzman at short.
The starting rotation is a mess. John Lannan is likely the #1 starter with a 9-15 recorded but at least a respectable 3.91 ERA ready to begin his second full season. Scott Olsen sent packing by Florida with an 8-11, 4.20 ERA record last year holds the second spot. Then from there it gets down right terrifying. Daniel Cabrera, a cast off from the pathetic Orioles’ rotation is their 3rd starter while having a powerful arm, the dude’s a head case. The Nationals’ coaches will have their hands full.
Central
Cubs win! Cubs win! Cubs win! Yes the Chicago Cubs look like sure winners in 2009 slightly improved with their closest competitors not doing much to improve their chances. The Cubs add temperamental slugger, Milton Bradley, for that missing RBI bat in their lineup, but a big part of the Cubs’ success could be what’s happened to their rivals.
First, the Milwaukee Brewers are a weaker team than last year. They made their push to go for it all, but now must pay up as a small market team trying to retain talent in the off-the-field game of money ball. What team can expect to contend with the loss of two key starting pitchers, C.C. Sabathia, acquired from Cleveland to push them into the playoffs, and Ben Sheets their other strong starter?
It’s hard not to consider a team managed by Tony LaRussa with Albert Pujois as the team’s top bat could not possibly show up in September? They cannot be ruled out. Should Chris Carpenter be healthy, suddenly St. Louis has a little depth in starting pitching. This is a team not to be ignored.
The Houston Astros were one of the Central division’s most dominant teams for several years. Chris Biggio and Jeff Bagwell anchored an attack that with the addition of pitchers like Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens became suddenly formidable. All these players are gone and some hope for the future was sent packing to Baltimore as they traded for all-star shortstop, Miguel Tejada, whose closet of skeletons suddenly stood wide open after the trade was included including steroid use and perjury charges. This is a team in decline that must produce results to avoid a tailspin.
Some pundits believe with Dusty Baker at the helm and young talent the Cincinnati Reds could be this year’s Tampa Rays. This talk of finding this year’s Tampa Rays is nothing more than media talk. Each team will rise or fall based on its own merits and situations. So how good are the Reds? To add some pop to their lineup, they acquired catcher, Ramon Hernandez from Baltimore, a dreadful defensive catcher not known for working well with pitching staffs who often does not run out line drives which appear to be outs. This is not the direction to go with a young pitching staff.
Finally there’s the Pittsburgh Pirates. No baseball franchise has a long run of futility than the once noble west Pennsylvania team of greats like Bill Mazeroski, Roberto Clemente, and Will Stargell who last made the post season with manager Jim Leyland with an all-star outfield of Bobby Bonilla, Andy Van Slyke, and Barry Bonds before he became the surly deformed mess of a steroids freak. Their last winning season was 1992. With a beautiful new ballpark on the north bank of the Alleghany River, the Pirates have an ideal environment to create baseball excitement in a small market environment. Sadly, primary owner, Robert Nutting and General Manager, Neal Huntington showing no signs of reversing the miserly attitude of previous owner, Kevin McClatchey. Rest assured, any decent talent developed will soon be sold off or traded before arbitration or free agency becomes a possibility. The Pirates have to be considered the most miserable franchise in Major League Baseball whose great history of long ago keeps them from being mentioned in the same breath as the Los Angeles Clippers and Detroit Lions.
West
What a weird division the NL West is. Last year, the possibility of a division winner with a less than .500 record was real. The Los Angeles Dodgers were only three games better than .500 that would have been good enough for second place in the miserable AL West whose three teams other than the Angels all had losing records, but would have placed them lower in the rest of baseball. That being said, the Dodgers are the clear choice for the AL West in 2009. They will enjoy the spectacle of Manny being Manny for the entire year. Adding starter, Randy Wolf, projected as their #2 starter who has seldom pitched a full season’s worth of starts off a losing record last year does not bode well for the Dodgers pitching rotation. Joe Torre’s leadership can only do so much for a team that would be an also-ran in any other division.
The Arizona Diamondbacks could be the Dodgers undoing. They have young talent ready to prove themselves. While the Padres and Rockies are in various states of rebuilding. One can hardly know what direction the San Francisco Giants are headed. They signed veteran starter, Randy Johnson, to anchor their rotation, but how much does the “Big Unit” have left. Likewise, the Giants have a weak offense in the post Bonds era.
The futility of the National League West goes largely unnoticed because their games are mostly played in the Pacific time zone, past bedtime for most of the nation.
Summary
The beauty of April is that the talk surrounding baseball focuses on what happens on the field not what happens elsewhere, and in recent history whether it was Raphael Palmeiro shaking his finger at Capitol Hill inquisitors insisting he never used steroids or Mark McGwire’s feeble talk of saying he was there to talk about “the future” or all the scandals recently befallen Yankees star, Alex Rodriguez once seen as the golden hope to exceed Barry Bonds’ homerun record as the guy who could clean up Bonds’ tarnish dominate the headlines as free agents shuffle about. This year, only the front line players the Yankees could afford appeared to get the big contracts where a starter like Ben Sheets is still looking for work.
Could this be the Cubs year? What if it was? Wouldn’t it be ironic if they faced the Red Sox and won? The Red Sox once stood with the Cubs as the most snake-bitten club in the majors despite making World Series appearances in 1967, 1975, and 1986 only to come home empty handed losing as only the Red Sox could in ’86. Now, it’s a new century, and the Sox are the only two time champs. What would happen to the Cubs reputation, all the folk lore from the curse of the goat to fan interference costing them a playoff victory just few outs away from a possible World Series berth, should they finally become World Champions. Our guess is that at some point, and given the distribution of talent in the National League, this could be the year, they will finally reach the World Series but whether they play the Red Sox, Yankees, or Angels, they will be surely over matched in the fall classic. Surely, the result would turn on one of those inexplicable flukes that only the boys from the quaint world of Wrigley Field could endure. If not the Cubs, the New York Mets or Philadelphia Phillies would be the best bet for NL winners.
There really aren’t any teams with real Cinderella potential. Forget the talk about teams like Kansas City or Cincinnati making bold steps or the Pittsburgh Pirates escaping the cellar unless the Reds go completely bust.
It’s hard to imagine Tampa repeating their glory from the 2008 season, but last year it was hard to imagine them as a dominant franchise. They will not sneak up on anybody and are not likely to have so many players having career years. The Boston Red Sox came within a game of going to back-to-back World Series last year. If they stay healthy and their pitching holds, they still are probably the team to beat…BUT….the Yankees sure didn’t stand still in the offseason. First, they added starting pitching replacing retiring, Mike Mussina who finally won 20 games in ’08 with C.C. Sabathia who is poised to become one of the game’s most dominant pitchers who carried the Milwaukee Brewers down the stretch last September. Their second starter A.J. Burnett adds much needed depth to the rotation but traditionally has had a history of injuries. His health is crucial for the Yankee rotation to hold strong. Chien-Ming Wang and Andy Pettitte with Joba Chamberlain penciled in as the 5th guy round out the rotation. Very important note for Yankees fans, while excite is in order for signing C.C. Sabthia, how likely is it he can exceed the 20 win season retiring Mike Mussina gave them? Their pickup in victoriers will have to come from other places in the order. Mark Texeira replaces Jason Giambi at first base and should easily meet or exceed Giambi’s power numbers while providing more consistent on base stats and tremendously improving fielding on the right side of the infield. The Yankees have some major question marks. Are any of their outfielders truly imposing figures? Their bullpen should be adequate but stopper Mariano Rivera is another year older perhaps starting to show some wear. The real x-factor for the Yankees is Alex Rodriquez. That he has undergone hip surgery that supposedly will remove him from the lineup for up to 30 days is of some concern for their top hitter, The real concern is that additional surgery is likely at the end of the season meaning he will not be playing at 100% or something in his physique is a ticking time bomb. An unhealthy A-Rod offsets the gain of Texeira’s addition to the lineup.
The Toronto Blue Jays cut payroll and will pay on the field as result. They’ve lost starting pitching and their offense is young. If the Orioles catch fire and somehow manage to patch together some starting pitching, the Blue Jays could find life lonely north of the border.
Alas, the Baltimore Orioles are headed for their twelfth losing season and dead last for the second year in a row. There just isn’t any scenario yet that would extend any better hope, but the pieces are coming together for a better team in the future. They locked down their two all-star caliber players, Brian Roberts and Nick Martakis to long term contracts. Their top prospect, switch hitting catcher, Matt Wieters will surely join the major league club at some point during the season. In the meantime, Gregg Zaun will don the tolls of ignorance with a reputation as a tough competitor and good handler of pitchers. The biggest improvement for the Orioles is improved fielding with a gold glove quality shortstop, Cesar Izturis, and quite likely, Felix Pie playing left field. Surely, almost anyone at first base could be an improvement over Kevin Millar as a fielder but his clubhouse upbeat attitude and general humor was important to help boost morale on a team that could not produce winning baseball. Nothing can aid struggling pitching better than solid leather behind them. As talent develops and some could appear during the year, they can pitch with confidence they are covered behind them. This is the kind of foundation the team needs as young pitchers come of age in the minors and begin showing up in Baltimore perhaps later as the year progresses. Patience is the key, but the organization led by President Andy McPhail is looking toward the long range health of the club where after the team’s last successful season in 1997 was followed by years of quick fixes and band aids without addressing rebuilding the organization from top to bottom where homegrown talent can grow to form the nucleus of the big club.
Central
While we make our predictions for the AL Central, we do so with loads of disclaimers. We feel the Indians, Twins, and White Sox are all in the running. Detroit falls short in starting pitching. We do not believe any of the hype about Kansas City being this year’s Tampa Bay Rays.
The Cleveland Indians were classic underachievers in 2008, but are blessed with one of the sports top emerging stars with Grady Sizemore, an almost flawless fielder who hit 33 homeruns, 90 RBI, and adds speed with 38 stolen bases.
The Chicago White Sox fell short of the playoffs last year while being the dominant team in the AL Central in 2008. The high salary laden team lead by mad man manager Ozzie Guillen offers aging slugger Jim Thome, 34 home runs in ’08, but slugger, Paul Konerko suffered a significant drop off last year. Their starting rotation anchored by Mark Buehrle will count on continued growth from John Danks and Gavin Floyd with veterans Jose Contreras and Bartolo Colon filling out the staff.
Meanwhile, the Minnesota Twins continue to exploit winning baseball on the cheap thanks to a fine organization that continues to produce quality players capable of replacing top talent that exits for the big bucks available in the big city lights. Switch hitting catcher, Joe Mauer, anchors a lively lineup capable of making a shambles of any pitching staff. The Detroit Tigers suffered horribly to finally enjoy the big payoff in their World Series run in 2006??? After years of futility, they developed a young nucleus and added a handful of veterans to put them in championship form. The Tigers have a sound nucleus on offence with Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Guillen, and Magglio Ordonez. Center fielder, Curtis Granderson, is an emerging star who was held back by injuries beginning last last season. The Tigers need solid pitching to advance. Justin Verlander anchors a staff with two big salaries on the DL. Adding Dontrelle Willis proved a disastrous move for Detroit. Who replaces him? Does he have anything left? Jeremy Bonderman begins the season on the disabled list after a lost 2008 season. Where can manager, Jim Leyland, look for innings and wins from his rotation? The Tigers took a huge salary hit cutting Gary Sheffield. For whatever benefit Sheffield’s bat could provide lacking a place in the field and not being the best ambassador for club house chemistry sent him packing. If there’s a Cinderella team in 2009, some would point to the Kansas City Royals. Really? Is that not Cindy Poison, er ah, Sidney Ponson, the Aruban drunk showing as 4th starter on the depth chart?
West
The Los Angeles Angels at Anaheim or whatever name they use to establish their roost, it’s all Disneyland to us, will win the West convincingly as other teams are in various states of rebuilding not having the resources to contend.
Of them, the Texas Rangers might have the edge to finish in second with their strong offense but they still have questions to be answered on the mound. Center fielder, John Hamilton leads the attack. However, pitching is lead by veteran, Kevin Millwood, anchors the staff but has only one winning season since coming to the American league losing his last two season. Vicente Padilla has had winning seasons for Texas two out of the last three years with a strong 14-8 mark last year. Beyond those two, it’s hard to smile in the Dallas/Fort Worth area. Kris Benson is projected as their third pitcher but has not pitched for two years posting an 11-12 record in 2006 with the hapless Baltimore Orioles.
Who knows where the Oakland Athletics will finish, but they are often a team who is good at beating expectations. While Jason Giambi returns after pursuing the big city lights (and dollars) in New York, his bat could help but he offers little more than a small brick wall at first base that the opposition will hit around and over. Matt Holiday heads west from Colorado to man left field and be the team’s primary power threat having hit 25 or more homeruns in the last three years. They’ve also picked up shortstop, Orlando Cabrera. Beyond that, youthful enthusiasm will have to turn into skill and results but they have fewer question marks than Seattle.
The Seattle Mariners appeared on a roll at the end of the 2007 season maybe just an impact player or two away from great things in the land of Starbucks, Nordstrom’s, Microsoft, and general weirdness. Quickly, the Baltimore Orioles looked like highway robbers sending them Erik Beddard whose sassy mouth didn’t make any friends to begin with but missing the season with an arm injury made the whole thing look dreadful considering the Orioles acquired their centerfielder of the future, Adam Jones, all-star closer George Sherrill, and top pitching prospect, Chris Tillman in return. Their one obvious star, Ichiro Suzuki starts the season on the DL with a nasty digestive system infection. Ken Griffey comes home to possibly close out his career and pencil in more stats on the all-time top performer lists in right field, but he is not the same fellow who left the northwest with high hopes of magic years ago. As the season progresses fans will need to see a plan for the future.
National League
East
The Eastern division will be another shootout between the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies. It’s hard to believe the Mets will suffer another late season collapse to usher the Phillies into the postseason for a third year in a row. Here’s the bottom line, the Mets are an improved team. The Phillies are about the same. The Mets couldn’t close games last year, but this year add their closer and setup man. Francisco Rodriguez brings his record 62 saves from the California Angels to Citi Bank Field with J.J. Putz bridging the starters to Rodriguez. Perhaps the X-factor in the Mets favor is their new ballpark, Citi Bank field which has not gotten the hype new Yankees Stadium has received only taunts about a big bank in the age of the bailout buying the naming rights. It’s a lovely ballpark in its own right far less majestic than the new cathedral in the Bronx, but one in the tradition of Orioles Park at Camden Yards. Shea Stadium was one of the most hated facilities in all of sports. While fans will still have to contend with LaGuardia airport, they finally have a decent facility to call home. Time will tell as the weather warms up how the new stadium will play.
The Phillies lost a good outfielder with Pat Burrell taking his power and RBI’s to the AL East with Tampa. Replacing him will be Raul Ibanez who does not have Burrell’s homerun numbers, but Philadelphia’s cozy little playing field could solve that. Jayson Werth is also supposed to be the every day right fielder, but has never played more than 134 games in a season, his last year’s mark with the Phillies. Up to that point, he was essentially a part time player. Vet Matt Stairs is the left-handed backup in the outfield. He could play an important roll for team with some awesome starters but little depth beyond them.
Since their last division title in 2005, the Atlanta Braves have struggled to regain the winning formula which, quite honestly, consisted of a starting rotation with names like Glavine, Smoltz, and Maddux. Glavine headed to New York while Maddux went out west en route to retirement, but Glavine returned while Smoltz face arm surgery last year. In the off season, when John Smoltz signed with the Boston Red Sox, it looked like for the first time since the 1980’s, not one of the big three would be playing for the 2009 Braves. Glavine returns albeit on the disabled list to start 2009. So what do the Braves still have that resembles the team that won the NL East every season that concluded from 1991 – 2005?
Derek Lowe comes east from the Dodgers to anchor the starting rotation but only in 2002 with a 21-8 record with the Red Sox and 16-8 his second year with the Dodgers has he shown true #1 starter material. He’s a good bet to gobble up innings having started at least 32 starts since 2002. Following him is sophomore, Jair Jurrjens, 13-10 3.68 starter for the Braves in 2008. Javier Vazquez enters the Atlanta rotation from the Chicago White Sox where he had a strong 15-8, 3.74 ERA season in 2007, but has been slightly worse than a .500 pitcher over his entire career. He does chalk up innings with 32 or more starts since 2000.
Third baseman, Chipper Jones, holds down the offensive attack as the only offensive player left from the Braves’ glory years. In 2004, Jones started 137 games, his highest mark dropping off to 109, 110, 134, and 128 in subsequent years. Last years stats showed a gaudy .364 batting average but only 82 runs, 22 homers, and 75 RBI’s. Much concern must focus on right fielder, Jeff Francoeur who swatted 29 homeruns in his first full season, but has dropped off to just 11 last year with 71 RBI’s and 70 runs with a substandard .239 batting average playing 155 games in 2008. On the opposite side of the outfield in left field, Garrett Anderson, a 15 year veteran, comes east from the Angels whose on base percentage is his best attribute to help the Braves attack. Hopes are high for rookie center fielder, Jordan Schafer who rushed through the minors to reach the big show. This is the essence of the Braves offense.
The reality check on the Atlanta Braves says there are way too many if’s and maybe’s for Dixieland’s team to be in the post season chase.
Then there are the Florida Marlins, the team that the rest of baseball seems to pay more attention to than their hometown fans in Miami. Their low budget youthful team has a powerful up and coming starting rotation and potential, potential, potential all around the diamond. Three players showed great home run power: Hanley Ramirez, 34; Dan Uggla 32; and Jorge Cantu, 29.
If September of 2008 was a prediction of things to come for the Marlins, they could be a team to watch even if Dolphins Stadium lies almost empty. While a new Marlins stadium with a retractable roof where the Orange Bowl once stood could be ready to start the 2012 season barring any last minute legal hassles, their lease runs out at Dolphins stadium at the end of this year. The Dolphins and Miami Hurricanes want them out.
Alas, the Washington Nationals are still a ways away from serious contention and will finish in last place again but the pieces are pulling together for a good future. For starters, no team was more injury-riddled than the 2008 team. They’ve added a powerful homerun threat to play left field or first base with Adam Dunn. Ryan Zimmerman at 3rd returns healthy ready to play a full season. Nick Johnson was out for all but 38 games last year and also should be back full time at first base. Yes, there’s another full-time player returning who was gone for most of the 2008 season, Ronnie Belliard at second who will form the experienced double play combo with Christian Guzman at short.
The starting rotation is a mess. John Lannan is likely the #1 starter with a 9-15 recorded but at least a respectable 3.91 ERA ready to begin his second full season. Scott Olsen sent packing by Florida with an 8-11, 4.20 ERA record last year holds the second spot. Then from there it gets down right terrifying. Daniel Cabrera, a cast off from the pathetic Orioles’ rotation is their 3rd starter while having a powerful arm, the dude’s a head case. The Nationals’ coaches will have their hands full.
Central
Cubs win! Cubs win! Cubs win! Yes the Chicago Cubs look like sure winners in 2009 slightly improved with their closest competitors not doing much to improve their chances. The Cubs add temperamental slugger, Milton Bradley, for that missing RBI bat in their lineup, but a big part of the Cubs’ success could be what’s happened to their rivals.
First, the Milwaukee Brewers are a weaker team than last year. They made their push to go for it all, but now must pay up as a small market team trying to retain talent in the off-the-field game of money ball. What team can expect to contend with the loss of two key starting pitchers, C.C. Sabathia, acquired from Cleveland to push them into the playoffs, and Ben Sheets their other strong starter?
It’s hard not to consider a team managed by Tony LaRussa with Albert Pujois as the team’s top bat could not possibly show up in September? They cannot be ruled out. Should Chris Carpenter be healthy, suddenly St. Louis has a little depth in starting pitching. This is a team not to be ignored.
The Houston Astros were one of the Central division’s most dominant teams for several years. Chris Biggio and Jeff Bagwell anchored an attack that with the addition of pitchers like Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens became suddenly formidable. All these players are gone and some hope for the future was sent packing to Baltimore as they traded for all-star shortstop, Miguel Tejada, whose closet of skeletons suddenly stood wide open after the trade was included including steroid use and perjury charges. This is a team in decline that must produce results to avoid a tailspin.
Some pundits believe with Dusty Baker at the helm and young talent the Cincinnati Reds could be this year’s Tampa Rays. This talk of finding this year’s Tampa Rays is nothing more than media talk. Each team will rise or fall based on its own merits and situations. So how good are the Reds? To add some pop to their lineup, they acquired catcher, Ramon Hernandez from Baltimore, a dreadful defensive catcher not known for working well with pitching staffs who often does not run out line drives which appear to be outs. This is not the direction to go with a young pitching staff.
Finally there’s the Pittsburgh Pirates. No baseball franchise has a long run of futility than the once noble west Pennsylvania team of greats like Bill Mazeroski, Roberto Clemente, and Will Stargell who last made the post season with manager Jim Leyland with an all-star outfield of Bobby Bonilla, Andy Van Slyke, and Barry Bonds before he became the surly deformed mess of a steroids freak. Their last winning season was 1992. With a beautiful new ballpark on the north bank of the Alleghany River, the Pirates have an ideal environment to create baseball excitement in a small market environment. Sadly, primary owner, Robert Nutting and General Manager, Neal Huntington showing no signs of reversing the miserly attitude of previous owner, Kevin McClatchey. Rest assured, any decent talent developed will soon be sold off or traded before arbitration or free agency becomes a possibility. The Pirates have to be considered the most miserable franchise in Major League Baseball whose great history of long ago keeps them from being mentioned in the same breath as the Los Angeles Clippers and Detroit Lions.
West
What a weird division the NL West is. Last year, the possibility of a division winner with a less than .500 record was real. The Los Angeles Dodgers were only three games better than .500 that would have been good enough for second place in the miserable AL West whose three teams other than the Angels all had losing records, but would have placed them lower in the rest of baseball. That being said, the Dodgers are the clear choice for the AL West in 2009. They will enjoy the spectacle of Manny being Manny for the entire year. Adding starter, Randy Wolf, projected as their #2 starter who has seldom pitched a full season’s worth of starts off a losing record last year does not bode well for the Dodgers pitching rotation. Joe Torre’s leadership can only do so much for a team that would be an also-ran in any other division.
The Arizona Diamondbacks could be the Dodgers undoing. They have young talent ready to prove themselves. While the Padres and Rockies are in various states of rebuilding. One can hardly know what direction the San Francisco Giants are headed. They signed veteran starter, Randy Johnson, to anchor their rotation, but how much does the “Big Unit” have left. Likewise, the Giants have a weak offense in the post Bonds era.
The futility of the National League West goes largely unnoticed because their games are mostly played in the Pacific time zone, past bedtime for most of the nation.
Summary
The beauty of April is that the talk surrounding baseball focuses on what happens on the field not what happens elsewhere, and in recent history whether it was Raphael Palmeiro shaking his finger at Capitol Hill inquisitors insisting he never used steroids or Mark McGwire’s feeble talk of saying he was there to talk about “the future” or all the scandals recently befallen Yankees star, Alex Rodriguez once seen as the golden hope to exceed Barry Bonds’ homerun record as the guy who could clean up Bonds’ tarnish dominate the headlines as free agents shuffle about. This year, only the front line players the Yankees could afford appeared to get the big contracts where a starter like Ben Sheets is still looking for work.
Could this be the Cubs year? What if it was? Wouldn’t it be ironic if they faced the Red Sox and won? The Red Sox once stood with the Cubs as the most snake-bitten club in the majors despite making World Series appearances in 1967, 1975, and 1986 only to come home empty handed losing as only the Red Sox could in ’86. Now, it’s a new century, and the Sox are the only two time champs. What would happen to the Cubs reputation, all the folk lore from the curse of the goat to fan interference costing them a playoff victory just few outs away from a possible World Series berth, should they finally become World Champions. Our guess is that at some point, and given the distribution of talent in the National League, this could be the year, they will finally reach the World Series but whether they play the Red Sox, Yankees, or Angels, they will be surely over matched in the fall classic. Surely, the result would turn on one of those inexplicable flukes that only the boys from the quaint world of Wrigley Field could endure. If not the Cubs, the New York Mets or Philadelphia Phillies would be the best bet for NL winners.
There really aren’t any teams with real Cinderella potential. Forget the talk about teams like Kansas City or Cincinnati making bold steps or the Pittsburgh Pirates escaping the cellar unless the Reds go completely bust.
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