Friday, October 16, 2009

Sprint Cup 2009, Race 31: Unstoppable?


Just how inevitable can a champion look?

At Lowe’s Motor Speedway the Lowe’s sponsored #48 Chevrolet driven by reigning three time champion, Jimmie Johnson sits on the pole for Saturday night’s race. After posting the red hot time in round one of practice where crew chief, Chad Knaus, was shown proudly strutting with delight after posting the hot lap, notably faster than teammate Mark Martin who will share the front row in the starting lineup.

The remainder of the Chase field qualifies as follows:

Kasey Kahne, 3rd
Tony Stewart, 5th
Ryan Newman, 6th
Jeff Gordon, 9th
Kurt Busch, 15th
Denny Hamlin, 17th
Juan Montoya, 18th
Greg Biffle, 23rd
Carl Edwards, 28th
Brian Vickers, 30th

Also of note, Matt Kenseth starts 4th, no consolation to the two Roush drivers in the chase. Brad Kesolowski, driving the #25 “Go Daddy” Chevy for Hendricks starts 8th while Dale Earnhardt Jr. continues his snake-bitten season unlike his teammates all in the top 10, starts a distant 39th. David Gilliland running in a 4th Joe Gibbs car, the #02 Toyota takes advantage of the opportunity with a 14th starting position. Mike Bliss, the latest to start for the “start and park” #71 team posted a number seven pole. Past champs making rare appearances, Bill Elliot races in 36th position for the “legendary” Wood Brothers while Terry Labonte used his past champ’s provisional for the #08 Carter/Simo Toyota.

Four drivers did not qualify, #36 – Michael McDowell, #09 – Sterling Marlin, #66 – Dave Blaney, and #37 – Travis Kvapil.

Looking for angles on how to prognosticate Saturday night’s race at the series’ home track all point in one direction, the absolute dominance of Jimmie Johnson whose recent wins at Charlotte combined with his poll setting and practice performance make him look almost superhuman for the race. Such a strong performance shadows Mark Martin’s remarkable run currently second in point, the poll and practice. Juan Montoya who has been so effective so far in the chase has a little tougher challenge at least to start with a middle of the pack, 18th starting position.

Clearly, all drivers hoping to remain realistic contenders in The Chase must do well this weekend. Mediocre finishes by Tony Stewart (-84), Jeff Gordon (-105), or Kurt Busch (-121) would essentially ruin their run. Greg Biffle (-188) and Carl Edwards (-192) would require not only an amazing finish but some slip ups high atop the standings to fight their way back in.

The obvious confidence and swagger seen by the #48 team must be sticking in the head of every driver and crew member as they prepare for the NASCAR Banking 500. Though it marks the end of the first half of the chase, the die is cast for what will happen in Homestead. NASCAR reporter, Marty Snider, writing for NASCAR.com argues the field has been reduced to the top five drivers with Jeff Gordon, 5th in line as a tier below the top four. One has to wonder if Jeff Gordon were not a four time champ if he would be seen as out of luck as well.

Fans can be encouraged that only 84 points separate the top four drivers which would indicate a very competitive field, but given who is numero uno, those numbers look perhaps a little too hopeful. What could Mark Martin, Juan Pablo Montoya, Tony Stewart, or Jeff Gordon accomplish to clearly establish an advantage over Johnson in the races ahead?

If they’re waiting for something to happen to the #48 car, surely it could happen, but there’s some kind of magic Teflon coating that seems to be applied to the #48 car from September onward in recent history. 2009 appears no exception.
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