Thursday, July 30, 2009

Sprint Cup 2009, Race 21: Pocono Deja Vu




NASCAR Déjà vu: Sprint Cup Tour Returns to Pocono

Of the tracks where the Sprint Cup tour visits twice each year, the turnaround time between visits to the two mile track at Long Pond, PA is the shortest, only eight weeks. Unlike some of the other tracks with two races where races might take place during different seasons or one at day, one at night, conditions don’t vary that much from June to August, but in the drivers’ mind, the season’s landscape is quite different. In June, the season is still on the ascent, approaching the halfway point, the competition is still sorting out the field picking out which teams are true championship contenders versus which ones wind up being the also rans. In early August, the competition for “The Chase” is starting to come into sharper focus. Most teams have been eliminated. There are those teams in the top twelve nervously holding on to their position; while lurking just below #12, a few teams are knocking on the door competing to get in. Meanwhile, atop the field, some of the best bets for the eventual championship are starting to look pretty obvious. For some, after the massive build up to the Brickyard 400 in Indianapolis just one week earlier, the Brickyard is a little bit of a letup. The media spotlight and massive attention doesn’t burn as brightly in the tranquil mountains of Northeast Pennsylvania.

After the Brickyard, the battle for inclusion in the field for the Chase has taken some interesting turns. Kyle Busch, despite being tied for the second most victories with three, stands two positions outside the field in 14th. David Reutimann in 13th position continues to flirt with breaking into the Chase and the Red Bull team piloted by Brian Vickers continues to show improvement in 15th position, 120 points outside of 12th place. Meanwhile, hopes continue to dim for any of Richard Childress Racing’s teams to fight for the Cup as Clint Bowyer is fading away in 16th spot, 151 points away from the field with Jeff Burton next in line in 17th with little hope of knocking on the door.

Meanwhile, Juan Montoya dropped a position after dominating the Brickyard field victim of his speeding penalty on pit road, in 10th place 100 points into the field with Mark Martin, the season’s most winning driver just ten points ahead of him in 9th. Greg Biffle was the biggest gainer in the upper standings leaping into the Chase field in 11th, 84 points into the field. His teammate, Matt Kenseth, nervously holds the last spot in the Chase in 12th, 68 points into the Chase. Three other teams are perhaps a disaster away from the danger zone, from 6th to 8th, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Newman, and Kasey Kahne. That leaves four drivers looking locked in at this point. It’s easy to imagine the season could come down to a dual between multiple champs Tony Stewart currently 192 points atop the field versus Jimmie Johnson. Fifteen points beneath Johnson stands his teammate, four time champ, Jeff Gordon, with another champ, Kurt, yes Kurt not Kyle Busch, in 4th much further back.

For the rest of the field, the remainder of the 2009 season is now a battle of survival or a battle of respectability. Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Kevin Harvick, two championship caliber drivers, having suffered dreadful seasons hold on to rescue something that will point to better results in 2010. Martin Truex Jr. closes out his career with Ganassi/Earnhardt racing switching to Michael Waltrip’s team next year. With Crown Royal sponsorship moving from the #26 Roush team to the #17 team for Matt Kenseth, driver, Jaime McMurray, holding on to 20th position, is not going to be a horse in the Roush stable next year. NASCAR mandated no ownership group can enter more than four teams for the entire season’s field forcing Roush to cut one team. Now it’s clear that team is #26. Roush and Ford Motor company hope that team can be absorbed into the Yates operation which couldn’t sustain sponsorship for the historic #28 team with Travis Kvapil earlier this year having only Paul Menard in his first year with the organization struggling in 33rd but looking like a sure bet to remain in the top 35. Yates also has a support agreement with Hall of Fame racing fielding former champ, Bobby Labonte, who has only one top five all season trying to stay in the top 30 in 28th position.

Much attention will continue to focus on 19 year old rookie, Joey Logano, with one victory and four top 10’s, is showing improvement each week for Joe Gibbs operation replacing Tony Stewart in the powerful #20 team.

Locking up spots in the top 35 in owner points, assuring teams of starting spots in the first four races of 2010 shows very limp competition for 2009 with only the 36th team being a threat to break through with the Earnhardt/Ganassi effort driven primarily by John Andretti in 36th two points below Red Bull rookie, Scott Speed, but from there Robby Gordon has over a 300 point advantage over Speed in 34th. Though it’s a long way to Homestead, a 300 point margin is a lot of ground to lose.

Who’s looking good for Sunday? All of the top nine drivers have had success at Pocono, so we’d almost have to call the odds a “pick ‘em” this week. Beyond that, surely the #42 team for Earnhardt/Ganassi with Juan Montoya will have much to prove after his powerful showing in Indy. All teams with scores to settle in the standings or for determining their fate for next year find the pressure getting hotter as the determining countdown to Richmond on September 12th intensifies with only five races to go.

While the attention dedicated to the second Pocono race is far more peaceful after the tremendous hype surrounding last week’s huge event in Indy, no one can realistically call the upcoming race any kind of relief as what’s at stake intensifies heading toward September. As drivers sharpen their focus and pit crews labor to tweak every last bit of performance out of their cars, a large field of teams realize they could be just one bad finish, a blown engine or being caught in an accident away from having hopes for 2009 ruined. Victory alone does not assure success as the fate of the #18 team proves with their run of bad luck this year.

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