Saturday, February 14, 2009

Daytona 500: Some Final Thoughts


We’re rooting for Mark Martin to win the Daytona 500, but coming up with a good choice of possible winners has never been tougher. Here are some of the factors that will play out in tomorrow’s race:

First, the weather, there is a 40% chance of thunderstorms through out the afternoon. A Daytona 500 has never been postponed but has been shortened because of rain. The track is now lighted so the race can withstand significant rain delays. Regardless, all strategy goes out the window when rain delays occur. Last year, Kurt Busch won the first New Hampshire race because the race was called early for rain. Michael Waltrip’s second victory in the Daytona 500 was also a rain shortened event.

Second, tire problems. Through the Speed Week activities, Sprint Cup cars have had trouble with right rear tires. Goodyear withdrew a series of tires by serial number. The tires are apparently “delaminating” where the tread separates from the body of the tire. Today in final practice, last year’s winner, Ryan Newman, had a tire explode which not only pushed him to run a backup to his backup, but he also collected his teammate and owner, Tony Stewart, who will also run in a backup car.

Third, backup cars. Several drivers are running in backup cars and will have to move to the rear of the field. Not only will Stewart and Newman be pushed back but so will 2007 winner, Kevin Harvick, Matt Kenseth, Scott Speed, John Andretti, and Sam Hornish Jr. will all relinquish their starting spots and have to struggle up through the field.

Fourth, Hendricks Horsepower: Six cars will be racing with Hendricks power and chassis. What kind of teamwork will Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Mark Martin, Tony Stewart, and Ryan Newman display. Four of them are former winners. Mark Martin almost won in 2007. Tony Stewart has become the new Dale Earnhardt Sr. winning everything in sight in Daytona but not winning the big one. Beyond that, the Childress/Earnhardt-Ganassi power plants have won four Daytona 500’s since 2001. Beyond that, who else is there to contend? Kyle Busch looks strong but will anyone work with him as he probably has more drivers who have scores to settle with him than anyone else in the Sprint Cup garage? Fords last trip to victory lane was in 2000 when Dale Jarrett won his second 500 for Robert Yates. The entire Ford and Dodge stables have looked weak in practice, qualifying, and the 125’s so far.

Fifth, “the BIG one. Fans and drivers alike nervously fear the inevitable, a huge multicar accident that collects several cars often some of the major contenders for the win. Having seen a lot of episodes of cars running three rows wide and questionable tire condtions, somehow “the big one” appears more ominous than ever. We pray there will be no injuries just twisted metal and hot tempers as a result.

Finally, the unexpected. No one would have bet on Ward Burton to win in 2002 or Ryan Newman last year. Surely, Kevin Harvick’s win in 2007 was seen as a surprise by most. We’ve identified the variables we think will influence tomorrow’s race, but suppose someone has stayed out in front to get five bonus points during a caution flag. The race resumes but then is quickly called for rain. Any dog could have his day.

We’re pleased to report that the effects of a bad economy and the multiple team switcheroo’s is not showing any significant influence on competition so far. If anything, born of the off season chaos could be another strong Ford team will Hall of Fame racing allying with Yates and snapping up the owner points from the defunct #38 operation. With Todd Parrot as crew chief and past champ, Bobby Labonte, as driver, they have an excellent chance to compete though a lot of remarkable things would have to come together for any Ford team to win the race unless above all else, the fifth factor above prevails.

This is perhaps the toughest Daytona 500 in recent memory to pick a favorite. Finally, a sad note, this is the first Daytona 500 ever that no one with the last name Petty was entered to compete in the Daytona 500. Kyle Petty is out of a ride with no suitors. King Richard is but a co-owner with a minority stake in the operation that bears his name.


Why do the names Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson seem so haunting as most likely winners?

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