Saturday, July 10, 2010

Sprint Cup 2010: The Half Season Report


2010 at the Halfway

The 2010 Sprint Cup season on the surface might look like the tale of two drivers, Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin with five wins each more than half of the victories so far, but looks are deceiving. For starters, both drivers have had their share of twisted metal situating Johnson in third place and Hamlin in fifth. Furthermore, Kevin Harvick is not to be denied with two wins, eight top fives and thirteen top tens, the #29 Chevrolet from Richard Childress’s garage demonstrates clearly, the Childress operation is back after some struggles through out most of last season. The Busch Brothers, Kyle and Kurt each have two wins. Meanwhile, Jeff Gordon sits in second place with nine top gives but no victories. Based on what Sprint Cup fans have seen so far, it would sure seem likely the championship would come from one of the drivers mentioned thus far.

Perhaps the biggest story of the year is NASCAR’s “let’s have at it boys” approach where a little more roughness on the track is tolerable and with the provision of up to three green/white/checkers attempts, the atmosphere is much racier. The result has not only been more competitive racing action but a more exciting atmosphere that perks up the coverage of races on television.

Fine tuning the “car of tomorrow” has made some aspects of the design which was introduced in 2007 features of yesterday the most noticeable being the elimination of the rear wing in favor of a more traditional spoiler from Martinsville forward. The impact on performance seems to depend on which driver and team one talks to about the design change but aerodynamically, the spoiler does increase the amount of drag. Aesthetically, the cars look more like “cup” cars fans are used to seeing since Holman Moody designed the 1966 Ford Fairlane for NASCAR competition.

The economics and politics of the sport have been quite evident shown by the extent to which the “start and park” phenomenon has become more conspicuous with teams qualifying for races sometimes doing quite well in the starting order only to not field a full pit crew and to have cars pull off the track before a full pit stop would be necessary. The inequity of permitting this insanity became obvious when teams intending to participate in the full race were eliminated from participation because some quitters had better qualifying times than they did.

On the track, how Ford teams have struggled still remains a vexing enigma for Roush-Fenway and newcomers, Richard Petty racing. Generally qualifying poorly, there has not been a single Ford victory in 2010 though Matt Kenseth, Greg Biffle, and Carl Edwards are in the all-important top 12. The problem could be due in part to the roll out of the FR9 Engine which finally is now universally deployed. Ford’s resources are spread somewhat thinner this year. With Yates racing being absorbed into Richard Petty racing and that operation becoming a Ford shop and the addition of Front Row racing still not a competitive entity, a typical starting field this year includes 12 Fords compared to seven last year.

The Nationwide series has upstaged its superior on three different fronts this year. First, at Daytona and early in the year with a couple recent reprises, DANICA-MANIA. Attractive, highly marketable and talented IRL driver, Danica Patrick signed with Dale Earnhardt Junior for a limited schedule allowing her to complete the entire IRL series. Her results so far have been inconclusive, but such is normally the case when an open-wheeler comes to NASCAR unless the driver’s name is Tony Stewart.

Nationwide also introduced its new car which appears to create better brand identity than the COT. Dodge races a very convincing replica of the Challenger while Ford has sort of a funny car version of the Mustang while Chevy stays with Impalas and Toyota keeps its Celica.

Last week produced one of the year’s most memorable races with Dale Earnhardt Jr. racing in a #3 with the assistance of Richard Childress and his stepmother with Wrangler sponsorship painted to look much like Senior’s car from his early dominant days. True to form, Earnhardt dominated and won the race, Nationwide’s first with its new cars. There was hardly a dry eye in the stands or at home watching.

On a related note, the Camping World Truck Series has not really caught fire yet this year. With its multiple open dates, some stretching over two or more weeks, it hasn’t developed much momentum yet but it is more a second half story.

Viewing the second half of the season, it’s still not hard to bet on Jimmie Johnson to gain his 5th consecutive championship being tied for the lead in wins puts him in superb shape for fall racing where he and Chad Knaus are the true masters. While Denny Hamlin is tied for the lead in wins, the Joe Gibbs operation appears a little off its game in recent weeks. They must get back on track if either Hamlin or Kyle Busch could be champion. Kevin Harvick continues to lead the points and with two wins is well situated for September. Jeff Gordon is a solid chase contender but with no victories, his place in the standings seems a little hollow. Beyond that, Kurt Busch could be a dark horse pick. Penske is Dodge and Dodge is Penske. Busch with chief, Steve Addington, continue as one of the most competitive teams on the track each week. Beyond these rides, there are simply too many question marks that could be promptly answered should any of the other drivers in the top 12 chalk up some wins.

As a footnote, Mark Martin who looked so strong last year has struggled this year with last week’s “big one” taking him out of the top 12. Martin is a gutsy but smart driver who could be due for some trips to the Promised Land. His loss was teammate, Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s gain who now stands in the top 12 who needs wins and consistency to justify consideration as a true contender.

Michael Waltrip racing, with Martin Truex Jr. and David Reutimann have fallen back from last year’s pace. Reutimann would need an exceptionally strong summer to get in the top 12 while things aren’t as bright for Truex. Aside from Mark Martin, the drivers outside the top 12 best situated to get in are Chevy drivers, Clint Bowyer and Ryan Newman. Meanwhile, Kasey Kahne gaining four positions last week would be the one outsider who appears on a true surge. The flipside of making it in is who could fall out. Surely, Ford’s lack of results could make things difficult for the Roush boys of whom Matt Kenseth has the broadest margin within the top 12, but both Carl Edwards and Greg Biffle are one bad race from falling out.

So it’s Chicago tonight, a week off, then the pageantry of the Brickyard 400. The championship drive will become increasingly clearer as the next series of races reward consistency and don’t usually create the blender effect a Daytona race can produce. The real shakers between now and Richmond would be in August with Watkins Glen and Bristol.

It’s time for some teams to get hot like the weather; otherwise, the talk of Jimmie Johnson inevitability could start up again.

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