There is one word that comes to mind sizing up the 2010 field of Sprint Cup Drivers, inevitability. Does it not seem like Jimmie Johnson nailing down his 5th championship seems inevitable? If not Jimmie Johnson, is there another strong candidate?
Look at how Johnson took charge the last two seasons where with clock-like precision his team did what had to be done to bag enough wins and finish high enough to secure the championship making Phoenix and Homestead seem almost meaningless. Even a 38th finish at Texas, race 34, 3rd from the last didn’t deter his amazing championship run.
Jimmie Johnson wins with such calculated precision his style of racing generates little excitement. He just shows up where he needs to be to earn the points and often the checkered flag to where he owns the show going into November.
Through most of the season, Tony Stewart looked like a real competitor despite adjusting to a new team and a new role as owner/driver; however, Stewart’s performance collapsed late in the season.
Mark Martin started off the season horribly, but by Chase time became Johnson’s toughest adversary but never got close enough to be a serious threat while teammate to both racers, Jeff Gordon lurked just behind. Two other drivers were in the upper echelon, Kurt Busch who finished 4th and Juan Pablo Montoya who was a much stronger factor than his final position would indicate.
Other hot topics besides who will be crowned king are far less compelling. Here are some of the things we’ll be talking about in the early part of the season.
The manufacturer’s competition will focus on Ford. With the long time Ford Yates team being absorbed into Richard Petty Racing who will now run on Ford horsepower, Ford will now have eight big team entries. Other entries including Front Row Racing and the new ownership of the #26 team will be Fords too. Blue ovals appeared a dying breed in 2009 but will be all over the race track in 2010. Dodge entries will only consist of Roger Penske’s stable as truly competitive rides. Brad Keselowski will run as the hot rookie to watch in the #12 car while Kurt Busch will attempt to improve on his fine 2009 season and Sam Hornish will attempt to zero in on consistent top ten finishes. 2009 was an off year for Toyota’s short tenure in Sprint Cup. Losing Tony Stewart and seeing Kyle Busch not make the chase made it a difficult season for Joe Gibbs racing. Michael Waltrip racing finally reached victory lane with David Reutimann earning their first victory while Mikey will only race a few races recruiting Martin Truex Jr. to be the NAPA sponsored major ride.
Rule changes will add new elements to competition. Bump drafting is once again legal and the yellow line restriction which created much controversy the past two seasons is eliminated. The rear wing will be replaced by a conventional spoiler at some point in the season at least for some forms of racing. The drivers and fans strongly approve that move.
Though not truly a Cup story, how much will all the hoopla Danica Patrick generates seep into the Sprint Cup scene. Will there be races where she’ll draw Nationwide crowds on par with Sprint Cup audiences? How will her races stack up with TV ratings for ESPN/ESPN2?
We’re not going to review the Sprint Cup field car by car. We’re going to group drivers into five categories and comment where appropriate. The first category is legitimate championship contenders. These are the drivers we believe are a lock to get into the chase and can compete for the trophy in Homestead. The second group consists of drivers who will compete to make the top twelve, the Chase field. Group three features cars who are capable of being competitive and could pocket a win under the right circumstance. Group four are field fillers. They’ll make the show and work to lock into the top 35 by season’s end. They’ll be competing more to maintain sponsorships and hang on to their rides than ever getting a glimpse of the top ten. The final group features mostly ones who should consider another line of work. Their presence clutters up the field and in the case of start and parkers represent a true embarrassment to the sport as they have no intention to compete for anything. Part time rides will be discussed based on their own merit.
Group1: Possible Champs
Chevrolet:
#48 Jimmy Johnson
# 5 Mark Martin
#14 Tony Stewart
#24 Jeff Gordon
Look at how Johnson took charge the last two seasons where with clock-like precision his team did what had to be done to bag enough wins and finish high enough to secure the championship making Phoenix and Homestead seem almost meaningless. Even a 38th finish at Texas, race 34, 3rd from the last didn’t deter his amazing championship run.
Jimmie Johnson wins with such calculated precision his style of racing generates little excitement. He just shows up where he needs to be to earn the points and often the checkered flag to where he owns the show going into November.
Through most of the season, Tony Stewart looked like a real competitor despite adjusting to a new team and a new role as owner/driver; however, Stewart’s performance collapsed late in the season.
Mark Martin started off the season horribly, but by Chase time became Johnson’s toughest adversary but never got close enough to be a serious threat while teammate to both racers, Jeff Gordon lurked just behind. Two other drivers were in the upper echelon, Kurt Busch who finished 4th and Juan Pablo Montoya who was a much stronger factor than his final position would indicate.
Other hot topics besides who will be crowned king are far less compelling. Here are some of the things we’ll be talking about in the early part of the season.
The manufacturer’s competition will focus on Ford. With the long time Ford Yates team being absorbed into Richard Petty Racing who will now run on Ford horsepower, Ford will now have eight big team entries. Other entries including Front Row Racing and the new ownership of the #26 team will be Fords too. Blue ovals appeared a dying breed in 2009 but will be all over the race track in 2010. Dodge entries will only consist of Roger Penske’s stable as truly competitive rides. Brad Keselowski will run as the hot rookie to watch in the #12 car while Kurt Busch will attempt to improve on his fine 2009 season and Sam Hornish will attempt to zero in on consistent top ten finishes. 2009 was an off year for Toyota’s short tenure in Sprint Cup. Losing Tony Stewart and seeing Kyle Busch not make the chase made it a difficult season for Joe Gibbs racing. Michael Waltrip racing finally reached victory lane with David Reutimann earning their first victory while Mikey will only race a few races recruiting Martin Truex Jr. to be the NAPA sponsored major ride.
Rule changes will add new elements to competition. Bump drafting is once again legal and the yellow line restriction which created much controversy the past two seasons is eliminated. The rear wing will be replaced by a conventional spoiler at some point in the season at least for some forms of racing. The drivers and fans strongly approve that move.
Though not truly a Cup story, how much will all the hoopla Danica Patrick generates seep into the Sprint Cup scene. Will there be races where she’ll draw Nationwide crowds on par with Sprint Cup audiences? How will her races stack up with TV ratings for ESPN/ESPN2?
We’re not going to review the Sprint Cup field car by car. We’re going to group drivers into five categories and comment where appropriate. The first category is legitimate championship contenders. These are the drivers we believe are a lock to get into the chase and can compete for the trophy in Homestead. The second group consists of drivers who will compete to make the top twelve, the Chase field. Group three features cars who are capable of being competitive and could pocket a win under the right circumstance. Group four are field fillers. They’ll make the show and work to lock into the top 35 by season’s end. They’ll be competing more to maintain sponsorships and hang on to their rides than ever getting a glimpse of the top ten. The final group features mostly ones who should consider another line of work. Their presence clutters up the field and in the case of start and parkers represent a true embarrassment to the sport as they have no intention to compete for anything. Part time rides will be discussed based on their own merit.
Group1: Possible Champs
Chevrolet:
#48 Jimmy Johnson
# 5 Mark Martin
#14 Tony Stewart
#24 Jeff Gordon
#42 Juan Pablo Montoya
Ford:
#17 Matt Kenseth
#99 Carl Edwards
Toyota:
#18 Kyle Busch
Given their performance last year, the Ford and Toyota entries have much to prove and improve for 2010. Given these are Roush Fenway and Joe Gibbs Racing entries, the resources are there, but how much smarter and better prepared in the House of Hendricks. While Tony Stewart is not part of the Hendricks team, his equipment comes from their shop, a lethal combination. Only a run of catastrophic bad luck and poor mistakes could keep any of these rides out of the chase, but Matt Kenseth and Kyle Busch need only look at 2009 to know nothing is for certain.
Group 2: Chase Chasers
Chevrolet:
#29 Kevin Harvick
#31 Jeff Burton
#39 Ryan Newman
#88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Dodge:
#2 Kurt Busch
Ford:
# 9 Kasey Kahne
#16 Greg Biffle
Toyota:
#00 David Reutimann
#11 Denny Hamlin
#83 Brian Vickers
So many stories revolve around these drivers but at the end of last season given most of them are established veterans would be something like, “would have, could have, should have.” For David Reutimann and Brian Vickers, 2009 was their breakthrough able to compete with the big boys. For the rest, regardless of whether they made the chase or were on the outside looking in, there were painful DNF’s or periods of frustration that kept the season from being a true success. Still any one of these guys can surely pull in a victory at just about any track at any time. Some have come darned close to fighting for championships.
Group 3: Competitive Rides
Chevrolet:
#1 Jaime McMurray
#33 Clint Bowyer
Dodge:
#12 Brad Keselowski
Ford:
#6 David Ragan
Toyota:
#20 Joey Logano
#47 Marcos Ambrose
#56 Martin Truex, Jr.
In ball sports, these would be the teams hovering around the .500 mark, but looking at this field, their presence in the middle of the field is not due to mediocrity or complacency, these are mostly young drivers with much to look forward to if they can show improvement this year.
Brad Keselowski is a brash, often careless rookie who at times looked brilliant able to take advantage of Talladega’s strange brew of racing to steal the win from the big shots. Joey Logano remains one of the youngest drivers to race at this level who surely arrived at the Cup level a year early but had his shot thanks to Tony Stewart leaving Joe Gibbs Racing for his own team.
Marcos Ambrose comes from the “Land Down Under” and at times had much more proven drivers shaking in their boots particularly on road courses. His team’s association with Michael Waltrip Racing provided them with good equipment which they used well.
Martin Truex Jr. was once Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s lesser partner at DEI and then looked like the heir apparent when Junior left only to be eclipsed by Juan Pablo Montoya when DEI and Ganassi merged. Truex has always been spoken of more in terms of potential than results but now as the flagship ride for Michael Waltrip’s team, taking Mikie’s ride, he has the opportunity to become a true competitor in 2010. He’s not there yet.
David Ragan and Clint Bowyer are the least noticed participants on big, successful teams. Both have the ability to ride in the chase. Bowyer’s been there. Of the two, Bowyer’s probably the one with the best shot at moving toward the chase based on his results so far. Ragan has not won a race at this level yet and fell off miserably in 2010 perhaps partly because the whole Roush-Fenway operation struggled.
Group 4: Field Fillers
Chevrolet:
#71 Bobby Labonte
Dodge:
#77 Sam Hornish Jr.
Ford:
#19 Elliot Sadler
#21 Bill Elliot
#34 John Andretti
#43 A.J. Allmendinger
#98 Paul Menard
Toyota:
#7 Robby Gordon
#13 Max Papis
#32 Reed Sorenson
#51 Michael Waltrip
#82 Scott Speed
The “field fillers” is a mixed bag of drivers. All of the full time drivers will work hard to be sure they remain in the top 35 at the end of the season. Some are at this level because their relative lack of experience hasn’t given them the chance to prove themselves more capable. Some are at this level for simply not achieving results either because of lacking talent or riding for a competitive team. Some are part-timers who are talented enough to do reasonably well including perhaps breaking the top ten if all goes right in the races they enter.
Sam Hornish Jr. started to show greater control and comfort at the cup level in several races toward the end of the season. Elliot Sadler has had his moments but seldom shows true top 20 material. Max Papis is an up and coming part-timer who has shown flashes of true ability at times. Bill Elliot and the “legendary” Wood Brothers were often Ford’s top qualifier last year and can find their ride in the top ten for any race they enter. Michael Waltrip runs part time as a restrictor place expert.
This will be a year A.J. Allmendinger can come through and prove himself with the King’s #43 on a Ford for the first time in over 40 years. Scott Speed dealt with rookie frustrations. He must show substantial growth in 2010.
Bobby Labonte’s career has been dreadful since leaving Joe Gibbs having what looked like a great chance last year with the defunct All-Star operation only to be booted out of his seat during several late races. He was fortunate to find the #71 car that will race with Earnhardt/Childress engines. Between his efforts and David Gilliland’s, they showed some potential at times.
Group 5: The Parking Lot
Chevrolet
#09 Aric Almirola
#35 Johnny Sauter
#36 Mike Bliss
#57 Norm Benning
#78 Regan Smith
#90 Casey Mears
Dodge
#02 Brandon Ash
#46 Terry Cook
#75 Derrick Cope
#92 Mike Wallace
Ford
#26 Boris Said
#37 Kevin Conway
#37 Travis Kvapil
#38 Robert Richardson
Toyota
#08 Terry Labonte
#27 Kirk Slelmerdine
#49 David Gilliland
#55 Michael McDowell
#66 Dave Blaney
#87 Joe Nemechek
#97 Jeff Fuller
Some of these guys will never make a single race unless the twin 125’s next Thursday count. Some will disappear after the 4th race when the top 35 based on this year’s results takes hold. A few of these teams could become more serious competitors but their situation is either too poorly defined or operation unproven to set expectations. Some will be there more often than not, making the show, but gone before the first pit stop, the park and ride pretenders.
We simply have nothing to qualify what to expect from the highly upgraded Front Row operations that will attempt to field a multicar operation with Yates/Roush Ford power. Likewise, Bill Jenkins purchased the surplus #26 ride from Roush/Fenway and will attempt to run the #26 car with last year’s owner points starting with proven road race star, Boris Said, at least initially.
Some Chevy teams will have Earnhardt/Childress power, but the one that might be worth a second look will be Casey Mears’ ride with Hendricks power.
Not a single Dodge in this group has a chance for much of anything including starting races. It will be interesting to see if some of them wind up with different decals and engines as the year goes by if they can scrape the change together to continue racing as Dodge is only supporting Penske who is not selling motors elsewhere.
The Toyota bottom feeders consist of the most likely start and park distracters. One has to wonder if someone like Joe Nemechek might be passing up on a potentially competitive career in Nationwide or Truck racing only to show up and do nothing at the cup level. We wrote of his struggles last fall. After a while however, heart and determination becomes ignorance when there is no sponsorship. One has to wonder if a fellow who fought so hard as a perpetual underdog has any shame to resign himself to such embarrassment on a weekly basis especially considering there were races for which he qualified quite well, a starting position to envy, but regardless, the day would be done by the first pit stop.
Many of these drives are sort of like big-boy grown men fantasies, just to be able to say “I ran in the Daytona 500” is a thrill few will ever realize and some of these guys do have a chance. The ones who stick around all season long are harder to figure.
Finally, if we size of the 2010 field and are asked to pick a favorite to win the championship, as much as we don’t like him, find him boring, and so coldly professional he’s about as exciting as a lukewarm cup of distilled water, how can we not say that Jimmie Johnson is the most likely champion? Look over these drivers and point to some one a fan can realistically say, “This is the guy!” We felt Tony Stewart or Mark Martin might have done it last year. Will Roush or Joe Gibbs be back in shape?
We’ll find out starting next Sunday.
Ford:
#17 Matt Kenseth
#99 Carl Edwards
Toyota:
#18 Kyle Busch
Given their performance last year, the Ford and Toyota entries have much to prove and improve for 2010. Given these are Roush Fenway and Joe Gibbs Racing entries, the resources are there, but how much smarter and better prepared in the House of Hendricks. While Tony Stewart is not part of the Hendricks team, his equipment comes from their shop, a lethal combination. Only a run of catastrophic bad luck and poor mistakes could keep any of these rides out of the chase, but Matt Kenseth and Kyle Busch need only look at 2009 to know nothing is for certain.
Group 2: Chase Chasers
Chevrolet:
#29 Kevin Harvick
#31 Jeff Burton
#39 Ryan Newman
#88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Dodge:
#2 Kurt Busch
Ford:
# 9 Kasey Kahne
#16 Greg Biffle
Toyota:
#00 David Reutimann
#11 Denny Hamlin
#83 Brian Vickers
So many stories revolve around these drivers but at the end of last season given most of them are established veterans would be something like, “would have, could have, should have.” For David Reutimann and Brian Vickers, 2009 was their breakthrough able to compete with the big boys. For the rest, regardless of whether they made the chase or were on the outside looking in, there were painful DNF’s or periods of frustration that kept the season from being a true success. Still any one of these guys can surely pull in a victory at just about any track at any time. Some have come darned close to fighting for championships.
Group 3: Competitive Rides
Chevrolet:
#1 Jaime McMurray
#33 Clint Bowyer
Dodge:
#12 Brad Keselowski
Ford:
#6 David Ragan
Toyota:
#20 Joey Logano
#47 Marcos Ambrose
#56 Martin Truex, Jr.
In ball sports, these would be the teams hovering around the .500 mark, but looking at this field, their presence in the middle of the field is not due to mediocrity or complacency, these are mostly young drivers with much to look forward to if they can show improvement this year.
Brad Keselowski is a brash, often careless rookie who at times looked brilliant able to take advantage of Talladega’s strange brew of racing to steal the win from the big shots. Joey Logano remains one of the youngest drivers to race at this level who surely arrived at the Cup level a year early but had his shot thanks to Tony Stewart leaving Joe Gibbs Racing for his own team.
Marcos Ambrose comes from the “Land Down Under” and at times had much more proven drivers shaking in their boots particularly on road courses. His team’s association with Michael Waltrip Racing provided them with good equipment which they used well.
Martin Truex Jr. was once Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s lesser partner at DEI and then looked like the heir apparent when Junior left only to be eclipsed by Juan Pablo Montoya when DEI and Ganassi merged. Truex has always been spoken of more in terms of potential than results but now as the flagship ride for Michael Waltrip’s team, taking Mikie’s ride, he has the opportunity to become a true competitor in 2010. He’s not there yet.
David Ragan and Clint Bowyer are the least noticed participants on big, successful teams. Both have the ability to ride in the chase. Bowyer’s been there. Of the two, Bowyer’s probably the one with the best shot at moving toward the chase based on his results so far. Ragan has not won a race at this level yet and fell off miserably in 2010 perhaps partly because the whole Roush-Fenway operation struggled.
Group 4: Field Fillers
Chevrolet:
#71 Bobby Labonte
Dodge:
#77 Sam Hornish Jr.
Ford:
#19 Elliot Sadler
#21 Bill Elliot
#34 John Andretti
#43 A.J. Allmendinger
#98 Paul Menard
Toyota:
#7 Robby Gordon
#13 Max Papis
#32 Reed Sorenson
#51 Michael Waltrip
#82 Scott Speed
The “field fillers” is a mixed bag of drivers. All of the full time drivers will work hard to be sure they remain in the top 35 at the end of the season. Some are at this level because their relative lack of experience hasn’t given them the chance to prove themselves more capable. Some are at this level for simply not achieving results either because of lacking talent or riding for a competitive team. Some are part-timers who are talented enough to do reasonably well including perhaps breaking the top ten if all goes right in the races they enter.
Sam Hornish Jr. started to show greater control and comfort at the cup level in several races toward the end of the season. Elliot Sadler has had his moments but seldom shows true top 20 material. Max Papis is an up and coming part-timer who has shown flashes of true ability at times. Bill Elliot and the “legendary” Wood Brothers were often Ford’s top qualifier last year and can find their ride in the top ten for any race they enter. Michael Waltrip runs part time as a restrictor place expert.
This will be a year A.J. Allmendinger can come through and prove himself with the King’s #43 on a Ford for the first time in over 40 years. Scott Speed dealt with rookie frustrations. He must show substantial growth in 2010.
Bobby Labonte’s career has been dreadful since leaving Joe Gibbs having what looked like a great chance last year with the defunct All-Star operation only to be booted out of his seat during several late races. He was fortunate to find the #71 car that will race with Earnhardt/Childress engines. Between his efforts and David Gilliland’s, they showed some potential at times.
Group 5: The Parking Lot
Chevrolet
#09 Aric Almirola
#35 Johnny Sauter
#36 Mike Bliss
#57 Norm Benning
#78 Regan Smith
#90 Casey Mears
Dodge
#02 Brandon Ash
#46 Terry Cook
#75 Derrick Cope
#92 Mike Wallace
Ford
#26 Boris Said
#37 Kevin Conway
#37 Travis Kvapil
#38 Robert Richardson
Toyota
#08 Terry Labonte
#27 Kirk Slelmerdine
#49 David Gilliland
#55 Michael McDowell
#66 Dave Blaney
#87 Joe Nemechek
#97 Jeff Fuller
Some of these guys will never make a single race unless the twin 125’s next Thursday count. Some will disappear after the 4th race when the top 35 based on this year’s results takes hold. A few of these teams could become more serious competitors but their situation is either too poorly defined or operation unproven to set expectations. Some will be there more often than not, making the show, but gone before the first pit stop, the park and ride pretenders.
We simply have nothing to qualify what to expect from the highly upgraded Front Row operations that will attempt to field a multicar operation with Yates/Roush Ford power. Likewise, Bill Jenkins purchased the surplus #26 ride from Roush/Fenway and will attempt to run the #26 car with last year’s owner points starting with proven road race star, Boris Said, at least initially.
Some Chevy teams will have Earnhardt/Childress power, but the one that might be worth a second look will be Casey Mears’ ride with Hendricks power.
Not a single Dodge in this group has a chance for much of anything including starting races. It will be interesting to see if some of them wind up with different decals and engines as the year goes by if they can scrape the change together to continue racing as Dodge is only supporting Penske who is not selling motors elsewhere.
The Toyota bottom feeders consist of the most likely start and park distracters. One has to wonder if someone like Joe Nemechek might be passing up on a potentially competitive career in Nationwide or Truck racing only to show up and do nothing at the cup level. We wrote of his struggles last fall. After a while however, heart and determination becomes ignorance when there is no sponsorship. One has to wonder if a fellow who fought so hard as a perpetual underdog has any shame to resign himself to such embarrassment on a weekly basis especially considering there were races for which he qualified quite well, a starting position to envy, but regardless, the day would be done by the first pit stop.
Many of these drives are sort of like big-boy grown men fantasies, just to be able to say “I ran in the Daytona 500” is a thrill few will ever realize and some of these guys do have a chance. The ones who stick around all season long are harder to figure.
Finally, if we size of the 2010 field and are asked to pick a favorite to win the championship, as much as we don’t like him, find him boring, and so coldly professional he’s about as exciting as a lukewarm cup of distilled water, how can we not say that Jimmie Johnson is the most likely champion? Look over these drivers and point to some one a fan can realistically say, “This is the guy!” We felt Tony Stewart or Mark Martin might have done it last year. Will Roush or Joe Gibbs be back in shape?
We’ll find out starting next Sunday.
2 comments:
Juan Pablo Montoya is missing from your rankings. He should be a "Chase Chaser". He did well to make the top 12 in 2009 but lacked something in the final 10 races to make a go of it. I would expect the same.
Thank you for pointing out my ommision. No question Juan Pable Montoya is a true racer who was mastering the world of NASCAR very effectively in 2010. Had he not been involved in some wrecks, his fortunes could have been even better. He will push Earnhardt/Ganassi to its limits this year. Meanwhile, one of the commentators pointed out the Jaime McMurray enjoyed his greatest success with Ganassi as had a good rapport their before moving to Roush.
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