The obvious answer is “no.” At their current pace, the Orioles will finish at 72 and 90 a three game improvement over the last two years’ finish at 93 losses. 2005 was the last season the Orioles finished with fewer than 90 losses at 88. 2005 was a pivotal year in Orioles’ history. While they played competitively for most of the first half of the season, the team was skating on thin ace as the organization as a whole was a dysfunctional mess having not had a winning season since reaching the league championship series in 1996 and 1997. Raphael Palmeiro’s reprise in Baltimore turned into a shocking embarrassment when the former Orioles and Texas Rangers star was suspended for steroid abuse after wagging his finger to a congressional panel assuring the world he never would touch the stuff in hearings during the previous off season. Manager Lee Mazzilli was fired turning over the honors of being captain of a sinking ship to the ever loyal coach, Sam Perlozo, a fine human being tapped to do the impossible, play respectable baseball in the American East with a totally dysfunctional club house and an organization with a cupboard all but bare with legitimate prospects. The team floundered as the model of a failing franchise much more in the mode of the Los Angeles Clippers or Detroit Lions than any team deserving to be called the Baltimore Orioles.
Two years ago, owner Peter Angelos had enough. It was time to put the suffering manager, Sam Perlozo, out of his misery, bring in someone who might be capable of working with what little talent the organization could provide from within and get a real baseball man with proven credentials to rebuild the team from the bottom up. Dave Trembley was elevated to field manager while Andy McPhail, whose father was President of the Orioles back in the late 1950’s just as the team began to become legit, became the team’s big boss tasked with being the architect for a winning future.
While little tangible has changed since mid-2007 in terms of wins and losses, the character of the team and power of its overall organization barely resembles the team of two years ago.
Here’s the scary part, if the Orioles continue at their present pace, the end result will look sadly similar to the last few futile seasons. If the Orioles fade miserably in August and September as they have the last two seasons, 100 losses could be a grim possibility.
Since the 2007-2008 off season, there is much to like. Shedding the big contracts of Miguel Tejada and Erik Beddard provided the team with two All-Stars: stopper, George Sherrill and centerfielder, Adam Jones each of whom contributed to American League victories in this year’s and last year’s All-Star games. Luke Scott is one of the team’s top sluggers splitting time between DH and left-field. Relievers Matt Albers and Dennis Sarfarte came to Baltimore from Houston, but besides them and Scott, the Orioles also gained a decent pitching prospect, Troy Patton, recovering from arm troubles, and a minor league infielder, Mike Costanzo. If the Tejada deal wasn’t promising enough, the Beddard deal not only have brought forth the two All-Stars, but now the hottest prospect looking to travel up the Chesapeake is pitching prospect Chris Tillman. Karn Mickolio, a reliever, also came in that blockbuster deal.
The two legitimate stars the Orioles developed prior to the big purge of two summers ago, Brian Roberts and Nick Martakis are signed to long term contracts while the highest touted prospect in the 2007 draft, Matt Wieters, is learning the art of catching at the major league level. Nolan Reimold looks more and more like the left-fielder of the future, one of the team’s best homerun threats.
Perhaps the biggest feature of Andy McPhail’s overhaul is the least visible at this point, but must be the biggest part of the rebuilding plan if the Orioles will ever be mentioned in the same breath at the Yankees and Red Sox ever again, the stock piling of pitching prospects. As the advance guard of that movement, right handed starter, Brad Bergesen appears to be the most likely to be part of the team’s future starting rotation having a 6-4 record and an excellent 3.51 ERA. Jason Berken looks like a fellow who needs more work possibly an extended stay in Norfolk to figure into the future plans. However, the real excitement throws south of Camden Yards in Norfolk and Bowie.
Chris Tillman leads the Norfolk prospects with an 8-5, 2.42 record with Chris Waters at 8-3, 4.24 looking promising in his 13 starts. Jake Arrieta moved up from Bowie and has started to adjust to AAA level hitting. A little closer to home at Bowie, Troy Patton looks stellar at 6-2, 1.99 as he continues his arm surgery recovery. Some consider the hottest pitching prospect of all to be Brian Matusz who started the year at Fredrick but has not lost a single game at Bowie with five wins and 2.01 ERA.
Between now and the end of September, some of these fellows could wind up in Baltimore as Mark Hendrickson and Rich Hill, two stop gap pitchers with major league experience, perhaps stand up well enough to protect the team from the miserable collapses of the last two seasons. Jeremy Guthrie, the team’s nominal ace, has battled a series of setbacks all season, the last of which was treatment for infection, but looked brilliant in his first post All-Star break start.
The big short term question is can and should the Orioles be active before the trade deadline? George Sherrill could be helpful for teams needing a stopper or closer as the missing piece to complete a run for the 2009 post season. Aubrey Huff provides a powerful left handed bat as a first baseman or DH, but should the Orioles let him go?
Huff sounds interested in staying and could hold down first base as the team continues to evolve toward a contender. His contract is up at the end of the year. Naturally, some talk of “lending” him to a contender, but once a player leaves the organization, there are no assurances of his return. Brandon Snyder could be the first baseman of the future whose powerful start at Bowie elevated him to Norfolk where he is just beginning to get his feet wet at the AAA level.
The Orioles best position is to probably intend to stand pat through the player auction of the next week, but should Andy McPhail find an irresistible deal that helps fill in the final pieces of building a contender, why not? The team is not up against the wall where they need to move salaries or clear out bodies.
So what remains?
The Orioles fate will become much clearer by Sunday as they play two more games at Yankee Stadium before playing three games against Boston this weekend. The Orioles greatest downfall has been their horrible play against their own division foes including even Toronto.
The Orioles still have nine games against Toronto, six in Toronto, three in Baltimore facing them next from August 7 to 9 at the Rodgers Center (aka Skydome). The Tampa Bay Rays have been particularly harsh on the Orioles and still have 11 games left, three in Tampa for mid-August then eight games in September playing their last four games in Florida. The Rays will look to the Birds to be their doormat from which they can ignite any possible chance they have of catching the Yankees or Red Sox. After this series, the Orioles face the Yankees for six more games, three at home and three away. The Red Sox have proven the Orioles most difficult adversary but will do battle with the O’s eleven more times including this coming weekend’s trip to Boston, five games in Boston and six games in Baltimore.
Outside their division, the Orioles return to Chicago and Detroit, two teams fighting for the central division crown. Another tough series comes in mid-August when the Los Angeles Angels come to town for four games. Beyond that, the schedule matches the Orioles up against the Royals, Athletics, Indians, and Rangers coming to Baltimore with trips to Minnesota and Cleveland rounding out the road show.
Having a 26-21 record at home and 15-30 record on the road reveals a startling gap demanding better results on the road. The balance between home and away is pretty close to even down the stretch, no decided home advantage for sure.
The keys, simply put, are:
The Orioles must do better against teams in their own division. Anything resembling performance from recent years will put the team around 90 losses at year’s end.
The team must play better on the road. Winning only one out of three games is unacceptable.
Sloppy and lackadaisical base running and fielding lapses cannot be tolerated. A team in the Orioles position cannot run themselves out of innings on offense and give away outs on defense.
Looking ahead to when the Orioles could be playing deeper into October, the following pieces of the puzzle are in place: Matt Wieters catching, Brian Roberts at 2B, and an outfield of Riemold, Jones, and Martakis. Luke Scott could be the team’s long term answer at DH. Will first base belong to Aubrey Huff, Brandon Snyder, or someone else?
Melvin Mora is probably playing his last season as an Oriole but wouldn’t he be a great guy to work into the organization somewhere given how close all the major farm teams’ area to Baltimore? There is no clear candidate for third base in the organization yet. Could Cesar Izturis or Robert Andino be the team’s shortstop for the future? Both show some good skills but haven’t proven to be consistent hitters yet.
Nobody knows for sure of all the great pitching prospects which ones will form the rotation of the future, but once upon a time, Mike Flanagan, Scott McGregor, and Dennis Martinez, two from the organization, one imported via trade joined Jim Palmer who was part of his own fraternity of homegrown pitchers including Dave McNally and Wally Bunker, all serving as historic examples of what could be in store in the very near future. Should the Orioles attempt to find a front line proven veteran starter to anchor a staff of perhaps four or five homegrown starters?
The final pieces in the bullpen and on the bench depend on how the fist line players assemble.
Maybe the big question this winter or next will be what power-hitting top caliber 3rd basemen could be available.
Whether the Orioles improve on the miserable records of recent past remains to be seen. At least now fans can realistically dream of a better future.
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