It's Off to the Big One to Try to Avoid the "Big One"
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RACE: Amp Energy 500
PLACE: Talladega Super Speedway
DATE: Sunday, October 5, 2008
TIME: 1:00 pm
TV: ABC, WMAR-TV, Channel 2
WEATHER: 83F, Sunny
Did you all see the end of the Kansas race last Sunday? WOW, WOW, WOW!!! For all the critics of the “Car of Tomorrow” which is the car they use today about creating boring, predictable racing, those watching Sprint Cup racing through the summer have seen some unbelievable finishes and some good old bump and grind racing the likes of which we haven’t seen since that black #3 Chevrolet with the Intimidator at the controls traded paint with Darrell Waltrip, Rusty Wallace, Terry Labonte, Geoff Bodine, and anyone else who would dare challenge his supremacy on the track. Watching Carl Edwards go for broke, banging off the wall final lap performance harkened back to that style of racing. Kansas did not prove to be a big momentum changer as far as most teams’ progress or regression in the points standings but did seem to reinforce what was already true. Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards, and Greg Biffle are the dominant drivers going down the stretch. A few other drivers are still within reach given a few breaks while others look as good as done.
Now that the Chase racers have survived Dover, they face the next of two tracks that can seriously alter the complexion of the chase as it doesn’t take much to change a driver’s fortune due to things completely beyond his control. Likewise, the way restrictor plate racing works with long trains of cars where slipping out of position can cause a car to drift back ten positions in an instant or can get a driver hopelessly caught back in the back can surely alter the end results costing much needed points on the road to Homestead in November.
Restrictor plate driving seems to reward a different pool of drivers. Fellows like Ernie Irvin, Sterling Marlin, and Michael Waltrip achieved most of their victories in plate races. Other top drivers like Rusty Wallace never won a single race over a twenty plus year career. Then there are the unimaginable mix-ups that lead to finishes like Ryan Newman pushed by teammate Kurt Busch winning the Daytona 500 or how Ward Burton won a few years earlier.
Things have already set up for the fall running at Talladega to be quite an interesting race given the top qualifiers and where top chase contenders find their starting position. Check this out!!
1. #28, Travis Kvapil, Ford, Robert Yates Racing
2. #5, Casey Mears, Chevy, Hendricks Motor Sprots
3. #8, Aric Almirola, Chevy, Dale Earnhardt, Inc.
4. #01, Reggie Smith, Chevy, Dale Earnhardt, Inc.
5. #15, Paul Menard, Chevy, Dale Earnhardt, Inc.
6. #33, Mike Wallace, Chevy, Richard Childress, Inc.
7. #78, Joe Nemechek, Chevy, Furniture Row Racing
8. #70, Tony Raines, Chevy, Haas Racing
9. #83, Brian Vickers, Toyota, Red Bull Racing
10. #1, Martin Truex, Jr., Chevy, Dale Earnhardt Racing
Not a single chase driver appears in the top ten. Several drivers are either not regulars or are also ones who have to race to get in. On top of that, things look pretty hot for Dale Earnhardt, Inc. don’t they? Add to that, Mike Wallace racing in a part time ride for Richard Childress comes from the same engine shop. Adding to the strange of the strange, Kenny Wallace racing for Michael Waltrip’s 00 ride, starts in the 14th spot.
So where are the Chase contenders. This is an eye-popper too.
12. #99, Carl Edwards, Ford, Roush/Fenway
15. #88, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Chevy, Hendricks Motor Sports
17. #31, Jeff Burton, Chevy, Richard Childress Racing
20. #48, Jimmie Johnson, Chevy, Hendricks Motor Sports
22. #16, Greg Biffle, Ford, Roush/Fenway
26. #24, Jeff Gordon, Chevy, Hendricks Motor Sports
31. #17, Matt Kenseth, Ford, Roush/Fenway
34. #20, Tony Stewart, Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing
35. #07, Clint Bowyer, Chevy, Richard Childress
36. #11, Denny Hamlin, Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing
37. #18, Kyle Busch, Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing
39. #29, Kevin Harvick, Chevy, Richard Childress
Now folks before you go running to your elected officials demanding an investigation and immediate action, plead that the Presidential candidates address this situation, or call some fruitcake talk show host who can connect this to some greater conspiracy theory, there are some dynamics, the race within the race, which helps explain this. First, for some reason only known to the France family’s brain trust, Talladega is an impound race. Crews have their practice sessions to document their best car setup and then need to setup for qualifying. Practice time was limited by a big mess left on the track from Dale Earnhardt Jr’s car’s rear end exploding. As the season winds down, the pressure on the “go or go home” gang, those below #35 in owner’s points are under more and more pressure to qualify well to optimize their chances of a good finish as they will be locked in to start the first four races of the 2009 season beginning at the Daytona 500. Making the race is of absolute importance to these teams, so they setup with what would be best for qualifying while the teams assured of a spot set up for racing competition. It is no easy task to change from one setup to another once the green flag drops. Even if these drivers fall back toward their normal positions toward the back of the field, early on, they’ll have chances to gain five bonus points for leading a lap. A five point boost can mean a position or two down in the lower reaches.
Meanwhile, the Chase stars are right in the thick of things from the middle to the bottom of the pack putting themselves in danger of “the big one.” Therein lies the set up for one factor that makes Talladega a track that jumbles up the final standings as competitors get whacked being stuck in one of the trains that derails with cars zipping all over the track when one fellow gets a little out of control causing everyone behind him to adjust.
Given where the big shots are starting and the likelihood of a couple episodes before they can work their way toward the front, picking favorites to finish given this qualifying order is a daunting task, so we’ll just chicken out and hope for a good race. Looking at recent history here are the drivers who’ve done well when ‘Bama bound. First, only two races have been run with the new car, this spring and last fall. Looking at those races, last fall, Jeff Gordon won and Jimmie Johnson finished second. Denny Hamlin and Tony Stewart were top 10 finishers. The misery gang included Kyle Busch at #36, Dale Earnhardt Jr. (still with DEI) #40, and Jeff Burton finished dead last.
Fortunes changed this spring with Jeff Burton winning the race with Kevin Harvick and Greg Biffle posting top tens. “Les Miserables” included most of the pack falling in the 20’s, Edwards – 21, Busch -22, Kenseth -23, Bowyer -24, Hamlin -26, and Johnson -28. The real miserable fellow was Little E himself, Dale Earnhardt, Jr. at 35th. Before the new car, since 2000, Dale Earnhardt Jr. has five wins at the track, Jeff Gordon, three, and Jimmie Johnson, one win.
Now here’s something to think about, since Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Jeff Gordon are the two dominant drivers at the Alabama track in recent years and now they are teammates, how about a little teamwork and driver cooperation? Remember when Jeff Gordon got pelted with beer cans for a little end of race strategy to beat Junior? They’re buddies now, and it looks like they have a plan. Check this out from NASCAR.COM!!!
http://www.nascar.com/2008/news/headlines/cup/10/04/dearnhardtjr.jgordon.work.together.talladega/index.html
For this race fan, few races cause greater fear and anxiety. To see those big trains develop and then cars running three and four wide starts creating fears of the big one about to happen. So which of these guys are going to wind up in the scrap heap?
This will be one to watch for sure! Start 'em guys. We're along for the ride so don't wreck 'em up too much.
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