Sprint Cup 2012: Race 13 -- Winning is Everything for Chase Contenders

Today’s race in Michigan, the Pure Michigan 400,  begins a four race shootout for the final field for the 2012 Chase for the Championship. For all drivers who have not positioned themselves effectively to lock into the Chase, the focus is clear, the agenda specifc, the goal obvious – win races. The field breaks down into five categories – those drivers who are or almost are assured of locking in their place. Next are drivers in the top ten with no victories who could fall out of the chase. The next groups are ones not in the top ten and what their chances are of making the Chase or slipping in as a Wild Card.

The following drivers have three wins: they’re in.

Jimmie Johnson

Brad Keselowski

Tony Stewart

The next group of drivers each have one win with three of them in good points standing to make a top ten standing after the checkered flag drops in Richmond.

Greg Biffle

Matt Kenseth

Dale Earnhardt, Jr.

Clint Bowyer

Cling Bowyer is in 7^th place, 26 points ahead of 10^th place. Bowyer is one of two drivers playing a cautious strategy might be prudent. A major catastrophe could throw him in the field on one win drivers outside the top ten.

Denny Hamlin in 10^th place has two wins. He leads the 11^th place ride by 40 points. He is almost certainly a sure bet for at least a wild card place, but bad finishes could revert him to a wild card.

Martin Truex Jr. has no wins and is in 6^th in the standings. His 49 point margin ahead of 10^th place. He enjoys more than a one race cushion to maintain a top ten in points. Only the worst of calamity would knock him out, but without a win so far this year, he would be eliminated.

Kevin Harvick is in 9^th place, winless in 2012. He is only 17 points above 10^th place. Kevin Harvick is sitting in the hot seat on the favorable side of the bubble.

In 11^th place with two wins, Kasey Kahne is well-positioned for the wild card. He has 40 point deficit out of 10^th place. Moving into the top 10 will require picking up 10 points a race through Richmond, a tough task; however, for him to fall out of the wild card spot, two one win drivers would have to each win two races. That’s not likely to happen.

Ryan Newman in 13^th place holds the second wild card position, but his stance as the second wild card winner is not secure given he only has a six point lead over the next winner, Kyle Busch. He is six points below Carl Edwards who’d knock him out with a win and become the leader of the one win drivers with a win in Michigan.

Jeff Gordon, in 15^th place is six points behind Kyle Busch, twelve points beneath Ryan Newman absolutely in the running for the second wild card. A Jeff Gordon win would push both Newman and Busch out of his way as the 2^nd wild card and seriously put Carl Edwards behind the needing two wins and a points advantage to work into the wild card. Marcos Ambrose in 17^th with one win, 44 points behind Newman and Joey Logano in 18^th, 57^th are not poised to exceed Ryan Newman in points. They must win at least one race while denying the other one win drivers in their three remaining races.

There is only one driver left, Paul Menard, currently winless, needing a win and overcoming a 15 points deficit below Newman to have a shot at the Chase.

Here’s a look at what the Chase field would be if it were determined right now. This is the chart against which drivers must advance to move in.

1. Jimmie Johnson, 3 wins
2. Brad Keselowski, 3 wins
3. Tony Stewart, 3 wins
4. Denny Hamlin, 2 wins
5. Greg Biffle, 1 win
6. Matt Kenseth, 1 win
7. Dale Earnhardt, Jr., 1 win
8. Clint Bowyer, 1 win
9. Martin Truex, 0 wins
10. Kevin Harvick, 0 wins

WC-1.  Kasey Kahne, 2 wins

WC-2.  Ryan Newman, 1 win

*******

Mark Martin sits on the pole in the #55 Aaron’s Toyota for Michael Waltrip Racing never to old to be counted out of anything in the backyard of the American Auto Industry, certainly a point not lost on the “Big Three” executives. The Ford contenders needed to step up their qualifying effort and with Carl Edwards, who must step it up tremendously in the next four races on the outside pole, and teammate, Matt Kenseth, behind him in 4^th  have answered the call. Part-timer, 2011 Daytona 500 winner, Trevor Bayne starts 6^th while last week’s winner, Marcose Ambrose starts 9^th while remaining Roush driver, Greg Biffle, checks in at an acceptable 13^th.

Of all drivers with chase possibilities, the lowest starters are Kyle Busch in 23^rd and Dale Earnhardt Jr. in 22^nd. Drivers from 19^th to 23^rd are all hot in the Chase battle and will seek to move through traffic and work on good track position early on. That’s also where early wrecks happen. The heat is on!

With two garbage entries failing to qualify – the #33 Stephen Lecht entry and the #37, J.J. Yeley entry, there are nine trash entries in the field – all likely candidates for a “start and park performance. In other words, quitters are now infecting the top 35 in the standings. That is unacceptable and must be addressed by NASCAR. The top level of a sport is no place for fantasy camp drivers to be shuffling in with the big boys.

Here’s the starting line up:

POS		CAR		DRIVER		MAKE		SPONSOR		SPEED
1		55		Mark Martin		Toyota		Aaron's Dream Machine		199.706
2		99		Carl Edwards		Ford		Geek Squad		198.626
3		48		Jimmie Johnson		Chevrolet		Lowe's		198.44
4		17		Matt Kenseth		Ford		Fifth Third Bank		198.183
5		5		Kasey Kahne		Chevrolet		Farmers Insurance		197.878
6		21		Trevor Bayne		Ford		Motorcraft / Quick Lane Tire & Auto Center		197.781
7		56		Martin Truex Jr.		Toyota		NAPA Auto Parts		197.65
8		9		Marcos Ambrose		Ford		Stanley		197.493
9		83		Landon Cassill		Toyota		Burger King / Dr Pepper		197.433
10		27		Paul Menard		Chevrolet		Menards / Pittsburgh Paints		197.163
11		24		Jeff Gordon		Chevrolet		Drive to End Hunger / AARP		197.115
12		15		Clint Bowyer		Toyota		5-hour Energy		197.012
13		16		Greg Biffle		Ford		3M		196.893
14		14		Tony Stewart		Chevrolet		Mobil 1 / Office Depot		196.877
15		39		Ryan Newman		Chevrolet		Wix Filters		196.732
16		20		Joey Logano		Toyota		The Home Depot		196.501
17		22		Parker Kligerman		Dodge		Shell / Pennzoil		196.249
18		78		Regan Smith		Chevrolet		Furniture Row / Farm American		196.217
19		2		Brad Keselowski		Dodge		Miller Lite		196.18
20		29		Kevin Harvick		Chevrolet		Jimmy Johns		196.052
21		11		Denny Hamlin		Toyota		FedEx Office		195.956
22		88		Dale Earnhardt Jr.		Chevrolet		National Guard / Diet Mountain Dew		195.822
23		18		Kyle Busch		Toyota		Interstate Batteries		193.299
24		1		Jamie McMurray		Chevrolet		Bass Pro Shops / Mercury		193.268
25		42		Juan Montoya		Chevrolet		Target		193.138
26		51		Kurt Busch		Chevrolet		HendrickCars.com		192.988
27		191		Reed Sorenson		Ford		Plinker Tactical		192.709
28		47		Bobby Labonte		Toyota		Clorox		192.596
29		13		Casey Mears		Ford		GEICO		192.56
30		93		Travis Kvapil		Toyota		Burger King / Dr Pepper		192.539
31		30		David Stremme		Toyota		Inception Motorsports		192.359
32		31		Jeff Burton		Chevrolet		Wheaties		192.282
33		119		Jason Leffler		Ford		Plinker Tactical		192.205
34		26		Josh Wise*		Ford		MDS Transport		192.179
35		87		Joe Nemechek		Toyota		AM / FM Energy Wood & Pellet Stoves		192.118
36		38		David Gilliland		Ford		Taco Bell		191.79
37		34		David Ragan		Ford		Long John Silver's		191.724
38		23		Scott Riggs		Chevrolet		North Texas Pipe		189.943
39		10		David Reutimann		Chevrolet		TMone.com		189.036
40		32		T.J. Bell+		Ford		Southern Pride Trucking / U.S. Chrome		185.118
41		43		Aric Almirola+		Ford		Eckrich		-
42		36		Dave Blaney+		Chevrolet		Tommy Baldwin Racing		-
43		98		Mike Skinner		Ford		Phil Parsons Racing		189.939
Did Not Qualify
44		33		Stephen Leicht*		Chevrolet		Little Joes Autos		189.444
45		37		J.J. Yeley		Chevrolet		Max Q Motorsports		188.157