Sprint Cup 2012: Hardly a Week Off with all That's at Stake

When the green flag drops in Indianapolis…..

            ……no more time off

                        ……no more excuses

                                    …..it’s now or never!!!!!

Though the second half of the season is two weeks in progress with the Coke Zero 400 at Daytona marking the actual half way point, the break between New Hampshire and Indianapolis provides a chance to evaluate the season so far and look to the future. The season will have a new look and feel when the field takes the green flag in Indianapolis. ESPN/ABC coverage begins so the sport won’t even look the same with new personalities, different emphasis and production values.

The big news coming out of New Hampshire is the crew chief change for the #99 team. After being seconds away from a possible championship in 2011, tying the champ, Tony Stewart in points, Carl Edwards’ season has been a huge disappointment this year seldom being in the picture as races approach the checkered flag. Hanging in 11^th place not making the top 10 in points and with no wins and four drivers having succeeded in bumping Edwards for the two wild card spots, the next seven weeks are crucial for this year’s success. Bob Edwards is out transitioning into a management roll in Roush/Fenway while Chad Norris is reputed as a tough competitor having supported the organization’s Nationwide teams and heading the Roush/Fenway R&D operations. Clearly the goal is winning, winning races and Carl doing back flips heading to victory lane. However, Kasey Kahne is well positioned for the Chase with two wins and could further squeeze the top ten field should he move into the top 10 in points also an almost certainty given his recent performance. Kahne is 20 points behind Edwards poised to move into 11^th place further complicating Edwards’ chase prospects.

The bottom of the chase field just happens to have the driver who would top the field after points are set based on victories when the Chase field is established. Brad Keselowski, leading the series with three wins, would get that honor. His strong position makes the points bumble a little more interesting with Edwards on the outside looking in with a formidable wall to overcome to make the field without winning. Though Edwards is 46 points out of 10^th place, 10^th is held by Keselowski and 9^th place driver is Clint Bowyer one point ahead and with one victory. That would put Martin Truex Jr. on the bubble in 8^th place four points Kieslowski’s superior, but 50 points ahead of Edwards. Kevin Harvick in 6^th is five points ahead of Truex.

The big fight right now is for the wild card spots. Kahne is sitting pretty with two wins for now and likely could ascend into the top ten but several drivers are competing with one win.  Here are the contenders:

Kyle Busch, 1 win, 13^th place, 545 points

Ryan Newman, 1 win, 14^th place, 536 points

Joey Logano, 1 win, 16^th place, 533 points

Tony Stewart is no lock for the chase on points at all but would be hard to beat as a wild card. He’s only five points above Keselowski. A couple bad finishes and he’s out of the top ten. Three wins keeps him in the Chase and at the top of the field with Keselowski with both in the top ten.

Indianapolis would normally mark the beginning of silly season and the musical chairs of who is going where. It will be big news when Matt Kenneth’s destination is announced; for most it’s a forgone conclusion that place will be Joe Gibbs racing. Talk continues about Michael Andretti coming to NASCAR as the successor to Penske with the future of Dodge in his hands. Who will drive Dodge next year?  Of course all eyes turn to Richard Petty Racing with his long association with Mopar, but let’s not forget, it’s only been a couple years since Petty’s switch to Ford. That move was due in part to margining with Robert Yates operation, but was it also for greener pastures and being able to run with dependable Roush engineering? Clearly, Hendricks, Stewart Haas, and Richard Childress will stay with Chevy. Gibbs and Michael Waltrip appear locked in with Toyota. Roush/Fenway is thoroughly locked in with Ford and Penske’s return speaks volumes of Ford’s potential. The silence around Chip Ganassi’s operation, nominally still bearing the Earnhardt name might be a candidate but the Earnhardt name associated with Dodge? Theresa Earnhardt has increasingly been an invisible partner in that organization so anything is possible. Jaime McMurray and Juan Pablo Montoya have almost nothing to show for this year. Between the two of them only five top tens and no top tens. That’s not acceptable for a front line team. Something will be shaken up there before 2013.

Of the unproven teams, certainly Burger King racing, Travis Kvapil and Landon Cassill are showing the most promise. While the Front Row racing operation only has David Ragan’s one top ten for bragging rights. Despite a win at Darlington and some strong races, Furniture Row’s team with Casey Mears has been almost invisible on the track short of wrecks in 2012.

One last point of conversation, Jeff Gordon, stick a fork in the #24 car it’s done. If any of the one win drivers scores another win, he’s completely finished. Realistically, the only hope for Gordon would be three wins in seven races. It’s not impossible, but highly unlikely. That not withstanding, with Gordon’s expertise, and the other three Hendricks’ drivers poised for a championship run, perhaps his function will be as the organization’s R&D operation to prepare for next year.

Is there any strong argument for one driver over another to be the champ at the end of the year?  Based on five consecutive championships and much that resembles that championship year so far in 2012, it’s hard not to like Jimmie Johnson, regardless of who is a ahead of him. The top three drivers have one win. The next two have two. Three drivers have nine top tens, two have eight. They range between ten to fourteen top tens. Is that parody or coincidence?

Concluding our thoughts on Stewart, three wins is a huge plus while being -87 in points is bad news until judgment day after Richmond. Kevin Harvick is simply not living up to expectations this year. Martin Truex and Clint Bowyer simply don’t look like championship material. If there’s a dark horse in the race, it’s Brad Keselowski, but when he has a bad day, it’s a really bad day. This is a driver who is maturing rapidly and has shown the talent to dominate a race.

 

RANK		DRIVER		PTS		(-)		RACES		POLE		W		T-5		T-10		$$$
1		Matt Kenseth		707		0		19		1		1		9		13		4,701,260
2		Dale Earnhardt Jr.		691		-16		19		0		1		8		14		3,506,160
3		Greg Biffle		667		-40		19		2		1		8		11		3,502,040
4		Jimmie Johnson		656		-51		19		1		2		9		14		4,745,550
5		Denny Hamlin		628		-79		19		1		2		9		10		3,907,640
6		Kevin Harvick		622		-85		19		0		0		3		9		3,275,110
7		Tony Stewart		618		-89		19		0		3		8		9		3,999,420
8		Martin Truex Jr.		617		-90		19		1		0		4		9		2,968,530
9		Clint Bowyer		614		-93		19		0		1		4		10		2,932,990
10		Brad Keselowski		613		-94		19		0		3		6		9		3,263,660
11		Carl Edwards		567		-140		19		1		0		2		9		3,045,860
12		Kasey Kahne		547		-160		19		2		2		5		10		2,716,200
13		Kyle Busch		545		-162		19		1		1		5		8		3,582,860
14		Ryan Newman		536		-171		19		0		1		3		5		2,971,930
15		Paul Menard		534		-173		19		0		0		0		4		2,295,760
16		Joey Logano		533		-174		19		1		1		2		7		2,356,530
17		Jeff Gordon		524		-183		19		1		0		2		7		3,000,440
18		Marcos Ambrose		495		-212		19		2		0		0		4		2,611,600
19		Jeff Burton		493		-214		19		0		0		2		4		3,010,780
20		Jamie McMurray		486		-221		19		0		0		0		3		2,568,650
21		Juan Montoya		452		-255		19		0		0		0		2		2,499,940
22		Aric Almirola		447		-260		19		1		0		0		2		2,642,800
23		Bobby Labonte		408		-299		19		0		0		0		1		2,319,300
24		AJ Allmendinger		400		-307		17		1		0		1		3		2,577,390
25		Kurt Busch		386		-321		18		0		0		1		2		2,278,360
26		Regan Smith		377		-330		19		0		0		0		0		2,281,680
27		Casey Mears		358		-349		19		0		0		0		0		2,042,830
28		Mark Martin		341		-366		12		3		0		2		5		1,594,100
29		David Ragan		322		-385		19		0		0		0		1		2,005,430
30		David Gilliland		311		-396		19		0		0		0		0		1,950,890
31		Travis Kvapil		298		-409		18		0		0		0		0		1,811,460
32		Landon Cassill		273		-434		19		0		0		0		0		2,284,220
33		David Reutimann		263		-444		16		0		0		0		0		1,602,830
34		Dave Blaney		255		-452		19		0		0		0		0		1,715,110
35		Brian Vickers		135		-572		4		0		0		2		2		393,145
36		David Stremme		125		-582		15		0		0		0		0		1,411,520
37		J.J. Yeley		122		-585		14		0		0		0		0		1,134,340
38		Michael McDowell		94		-613		17		0		0		0		0		1,501,740
39		Ken Schrader		86		-621		7		0		0		0		0		608,845
40		Josh Wise*		80		-627		17		0		0		0		0		1,316,120
41		Michael Waltrip		75		-632		3		0		0		0		1		316,687
42		Terry Labonte		66		-641		3		0		0		0		0		492,560
43		Tony Raines		61		-646		5		0		0		0		0		651,975
44		Stephen Leicht*		54		-653		8		0		0		0		0		690,940
45		Brendan Gaughan		50		-657		4		0		0		0		0		354,559
46		Scott Speed		36		-671		7		0		0		0		0		562,325
47		Scott Riggs		31		-676		11		0		0		0		0		794,672
48		Boris Said		15		-692		1		0		0		0		0		88,455
49		Bill Elliott		14		-693		2		0		0		0		0		196,098
50		Hermie Sadler		13		-694		1		0		0		0		0		80,610
51		Robby Gordon		11		-696		3		0		0		0		0		405,300
52		Tomy Drissi		6		-701		1		0		0		0		0		76,242
53		Stacy Compton		5		-702		1		0		0		0		0		64,225
54		David Mayhew		4		-703		1		0		0		0		0		72,625
55		Chris Cook		2		-705		1		0		0		0		0		72,355
56		Kelly Bires		2		-705		1		0		0		0		0		69,400
57		Trevor Bayne		0		-707		7		0		0		0		2		938,477
58		Sam Hornish Jr.		0		-707		3		0		0		0		0		330,625
59		Ricky Stenhouse Jr.		0		-707		1		0		0		0		0		304,275
60		Mike Bliss		0		-707		9		0		0		0		0		690,998
61		Austin Dillon		0		-707		1		0		0		0		0		88,285
62		Robert Richardson Jr.		0		-707		1		0		0		0		0		110,318
63		Elliott Sadler		0		-707		1		0		0		0		0		305,788
64		Reed Sorenson		0		-707		9		0		0		0		0		742,463
65		Joe Nemechek		0		-707		17		0		0		0		0		1,497,590
66		Danica Patrick		0		-707		3		0		0		0		0		451,575
67		T.J. Bell		0		-707		1		0		0		0		0		96,730
68		Cole Whitt		0		-707		3		0		0		0		0		225,807
69		Mike Skinner		0		-707		1		0		0		0		0		71,875
70		Timmy Hill		0		-707		1		0		0		0		0		79,780

Take note of the money the qualify and quit, start and park, drivers have earned so far. The money absorbed by teams having no intention to race, but this is the era of play the system and to some, what value is achievement?

Tell that to the fellows who lay everything on the line to win, to move up the ladder, to constantly improve. Fellows like Phil Parsons and his drivers, Joe Nemechek and about another half dozen teams are gaming the system and nothing more. What a slap in the  face to fans who put in a full day's work for a full day's pay.

Bring it on! The heat of the season is on.