Sprint Cup 2011: Race 32 -- Talladega, the Big Bad Blender

Be careful which driver you're in love with, this race is bound to break your heart.

If Sprint Cup fans thought Jimmie Johnson’s collision with the wall and subsequent DNF eliminated him from the Championship Chase, Johnson did exactly what he needed to do to give himself a fighting chance sitting on the outside poll aside teammate Mark Martin for tomorrow’s Good Sam Club 500 at Talladega, and how about that, as fate would have it he has his drafting partner there too. Adding to the strategic possibilities  or limitations, Jack Roush mandated that all Roush-Yates powered cars, in other words the entire Ford fleet, must partner with other Fords, giving his two title contenders Carl Edwards and Matt Kenseth a whole lot of buddies on the field including the two Richard Petty rides that have been riding strong recently and Trevor Bayne, the young Daytona 500 star racing for the “legendary” Wood Brothers who starts 4^th.  For this week’s consideration of possible championship contenders, the driver must be with one race’s point total to still be considered viable with five races including Talladega in consideration.

Here are the possible contenders in rank order and where they start tomorrow.

1-      Carl Edwards, #17, Ford, starts 9^th

2-      Kevin Harvick, #29, Chevrolet, starts 13^th (-5)

3-      Matt Kenseth, #17, Ford, starts 11^th (-7)

4-      Kyle Busch, #18, Toyota, starts 34^th (-18)

5-      Tony Stewart, #14, Chevrolet, starts 12^th (-24)

6-      Brad Keselowski, #2, Dodge, starts 16^th (-25)

7-      Kurt Busch, #22, Dodge, starts 14^th (-27)

8-      Jimmie Johnson, #48, Chevrolet, starts 2^nd (-35)

Talladega is what’s considered a blender race as teams can take a tremendous dive in the standings made far worse on a restrictor plate race where a car can run well all day, not wreck, but wind up out of the draft and in the wrong pack at the end of the race. This conversely gives some teams the opportunity to advance, but given we’re discussing the top eight teams, downward mobility is more likely than noteworthy moves upward, however, the top 3 are extremely tight. Kyle Busch begins the next group of competitors between -17 and -25, an nine point spread between 4^th and 7^th. While making up 27 points is not unthinkable for Kurt Busch, overcoming six drivers ahead of him would be the greater challenge. For right now, it would appear three teams are fighting to stay in top contention range while five drivers are fighting to give them some company. It’s worth noting that though Roush has two cars in great shape, they are not strong restrictor plate contenders even though Kenseth has a Daytona 500 win.  Of course who knows where Carl Edwards would have finished in spring 2010 if it weren’t for the horrifying homestretch crash that gave Brad Keselowski the Cinderella win.

The scramble continues next week at Martinsville, the diametric opposite of Talladega, but equally a blender race after which the shootout for the trophy will be lined up for the last three dates in the southern latitudes.

Sprint Cup 2011: Race 31 -- the Home Stretch to the Championship is on.

The Sprint Cup tour comes home to Charlotte marking the halfway point in the 2011 Chase at race’s end. Tony Stewart who burst on the Chase scene winning his first two races, his first two for 2011, but has fallen to 7^th place with bad showings at Dover and Kansas, is positioned to throw himself back in the picture sitting on the poll for the Bank of America 500. Five more chasers reside in the top ten while all but two start in the top 20. The two outside of the top 20 are Jeff Gordon, all but eliminated from the chase when his engine blew in the final laps of last week’s race. Trapped in 10^th place, 47 points out any faint hope Gordon had are surely dashed with tonight’s qualifying spot all but cinching the deal. Kyle Busch who has not shown much punch in the chase 8^th place, 20 points out starts in 25^th. Let’s look at where the championship contenders by rank start in their drive to the Chase. Leader, Carl Edwards, starting 3^rd must be feeling pretty good!

1-      Carl Edwards, #99, (#1), starts 3^rd

2-      Kevin Harvick, #29, (-1), starts 14^th

3-      Jimmie Johnson, #48, (-4), starts 9^th

4-      Brad Keselowski, #2, (-11), starts 26^th

5-      Matt Kenseth, #17, (-16), starts 2^nd

6-      Kurt Busch, #22, (-16), starts 20^th

7-      Tony Stewart, #14, (-19), starts 1^st

8-      Kyle Busch, #18, (-20), starts 25^th

9-      Dale Earnhardt Jr., #88, (-43) starts 15^th

10-  Jeff Gordon, #24, (-47), starts 23^rd

11-  Ryan Newman, #39, (-54), starts 6^th

12-  Denny Hamlin, #11, (-79), starts 17^th

For all practical purposes, positions 9-12 are absolutely eliminated from Chase consideration. At -43 points, Dale Earnhardt Jr. has an entire race’s worth of points to ake make. While positions 4-8 are within 20 points of the lead, they’re also going to depend on other drivers ahead of them to fail to make their move. Perhaps the big question for the race will be if any of those drivers can vault themselves back into serious contention at the close of the race realizing than Charlotte is one of the tracks where Jimmie Johnson is most successful. Carl Edwards needs a win to atone for his sloppy, car destroying burnout, from last spring’s All-Star race at the track!

NFL 2011 - Week 6 - A Big Day for the Teams Unexpectedly Good and Bad

Week six of the 2011 NFL season provides some teams having unexpectedly strong start a chance to prove themselves and some teams expected to do well who have struggled a chance to regain some positive momentum. Some of this week’s games pit the fast starters against the slow traditional winners.

Philadelphia (-1) @ Washington

Who’d expect the Redskins to be in first place in the 6^th week of the season and perhaps even more astounding to have a three game lead over the Eagles?  This is the matchup in Landover Sunday afternoon. Nevertheless, Las Vegas gives Philadelphia a field goal over Washington on hostile turf. While the Redskins don’t look like a miracle team, so far the Eagles have done just about everything wrong imaginable on both sides of the ball showing little team cohesion. Are they looking at last year’s tapes or do they think Philadelphia’s desperate status should have them fired up to avoid yet another in the accumulation of mounting losses, 1-4 at this point. Oh Washington is also coming off a bye week too. So how does a 1-4 team beat a 3-1 team in its own division? It won’t happen!

Carolina @ Atlanta (-4)

Just how great is Cam Newton’s ascent as a rookie QB. Second, just how off track is Atlanta’s season so far? This will be decided in the Georgia Dome. Green Bay slaughtered Atlanta Sunday night while Carolina played strongly against the powerful New Orleans Saints losing by just a field goal. This might be a good choice for an upset giving Newton another advance, but it will take more than Newton’s emerging power to win this one. Give the battle of old Dixie to Atlanta.

St. Louis at Green Bay (-15)

In St. Louis all talk will be about their baseball team. Oddly enough, the match up here mirrors the NLCS pairing since the Cardinals adversaries are cheese heads too from the big city to the south. The Packers will win easily.

Jacksonville @ Pittsburgh (-12)

Here’s a game that should make Pittsburgh’s apparent earlier struggles seem distant memories. Anything less than a two touchdown win will have Steelers’ fans nervous.

Buffalo @ New York Giant (-3 ½)

Here’s one of those match-ups between a team with early season success against a team expected to be strong failing. Considering the Giants got whacked at home by the weak Seattle Seahawks and Buffalo handled the Eagles last week on top of everything else, contrary to the Vegas fellows’ choices, this looks like a win for the one NFL team that actually plays in the state of New York.

Indianapolis @ Cincinnati (-7)

How bad can things look for the Colts minus Peyton Manning? If the game plays out and Cincinnati wins as expected, the Colts remain winless while the Bengels look respectable.

San Francisco @ Detroit (-5)

This game puts two of the surprise successes for 2011 head-to-head. Imagine the Detroit Lions winning and being 6-0. That’s the better choice. If they lose, both these teams will be 5-1, something no one would have expected at the beginning of the season.

Houston @ Baltimore (-7 ½)

Houston was poised to be a strong winner in 2011, but vexing injuries have them teetering in a week division this year. The Ravens will march on to victory in Crab Town.

Cleveland @ Oakland (-6)

This game’s a tough choice between two rather weak teams that can play tough at times. The home field and a little more punch should give the game to the Silver and Black.

New Orleans (-4 ½) @ Tampa Bay

Tampa’s a team on the rise but to ask them to defeat the powerful Saints is still just outside their reach.

Dallas @ New England (-7)

The talk is New England’s not as strong as in past years, but when have teams looked worse losing than the Cowboys who are 2-2 so far?  The national media seems to take glory in thinking New England is falling apart but makes excuses for Dallas. Rest assured, Dallas won’t win. It’s just a matter of how ugly they lose.

Minnesota @ Chicago (-3)

Chicago’s banged up but still strong enough to beat the messed up Vikings.

Miami @ New York Jets (-7)

Here’s the Jets chance to begin to heal the hurt of a dreadful three game losing streak. After a Monday night win, they’d better not suddenly get too boastful because their next opponents have tapes on how they lost.

Sprint Cup 2011: Race 30 - Heating up the Heartland (Chase #4)

Dover did what Dover does and shuffled the field among the twelve “Chase” contenders gunning for the 2011 Sprint Cup Championship. Tony Stewart stood atop the field after two weeks looking like a driver in championship form, but after a poor race, Stewart has slipped to tied for third nine points behind the points leader, Kevin Harvick. Jeff Gordon was the big loser slipping four positions but still in close contention nineteen points off the lead. Dale Earnhardt Jr. lost two positions, now in 10^th, 34 points out of first. For Ryan Newman (41 points back) and especially Denny Hamlin (68 points back), the chances of glory in Homestead at the end of the season would appear to be long shots. The Chase is hotly contended given with nine races to go, nine teams are within nineteen points in the championship contest.

Shown below is how the Chase drivers shown by points position, their starting spot for the Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speeway, and how many points out of the lead they need to resolve.

1 – Kevin Harvick, #29, Chevrolet, (14^th), #1

2 – Carl Edwards, #99, Ford, (2^nd), #1

3 – Tony Stewart, #14, Chevrolet, (23^rd), -9

4 – Kurt Busch, #22, Dodge (17^th), -9

5 – Jimmie Johnson, #48, Chevrolet, (19^th), -13

6 – Brad Keselowski, #2 Dodge, (12^th), -14

7 – Matt Kenseth, #17, Ford, (4^th), -14

8 – Kyle Busch, #18, Toyota, (3^rd), -15

9 – Jeff Gordon, #24, Chevrolet, (10^th), -19

10 – Dale Earnhardt, Jr., #88, Chevrolet, (18^th), -34

11 – Ryan Newman, #39, Chevrolet, (11^th), -41

12 – Denny Hamlin, #11, Toyota, (7^th), -68

Richard Childress might have divided loyalties since besides having Kevin Harvick tied for the points lead starting the race along with his three other teams, his grandson, Austin Dillon, current leader in the Camping World Truck Series, makes his Sprint Cup debut. We’ll see how high of a finishing spot the young driver will achieve given it is quite likely at least eight cars will be doing their welfare laps politely called “start and park” teams realistically called a supreme embarrassment to NASCAR and a fraud to NASCAR’s fans.

In today’s Nationwide race NINE cars pulled off the track with nebulous problems, perpetuating the start and park fraud. If teams are having trouble finding sponsors, and there are teams on both Sprint Cup and Nationwide who can’t or won’t compete, then it’s obvious the field needs to be slashed where only teams that are resourced enough to truly buy in and compete would remain. The progressively tiered system of NASCAR series should assure each advancing series represents a higher level of talent, resources, and achievement.

It’s time to revamp the system, minimum team requirements, and smaller starting fields. This charade is cheapening the sport no matter much NASCAR and is media partners attempt to sweep it uner the rug. We’re projecting seven teams will bow out of today’s race.

NFL 2011 - Week 5 -- Byes for some, goodbye for 13 more teams.

The byes slip in with six teams sitting out the competition this weekend. The following teams do not play:

·         Baltimore

·         Washington

·         Dallas

·         Cleveland

·         Miami

·         St. Louis

AFC

With one quarter of the 2011 season complete, all four division leaders are 3-1, North – Baltimore; South – Houston, Tennessee; East: New England, Buffalo; West – San Diego. Of the 2-2 teams, Pittsburgh and the New York Jets are the ones that most likely have the talent to compete for playoff spots. Oakland, Cleveland, and Cincinnati are more likely to fall. Jacksonville, Denver, and Kansas City at 1-3 must show huge improvement to have any hopes for this season, It’s already #1 draft pick sweepstakes for Indianapolis and Miami.

NFC

The Detroit Lions are 4-0. That’s right; the Lions are 4-0 while their baseball buddies eliminated the Yankees as the Tigers soldier on. The Green Bay Packers, the defending champs, likewise are 4-0 and their big city neighbors to the south, Milwaukee, the cheesiest baseball team moves on in the MLB playoffs. The south and east are both led by two 3-1 teams with New Orleans and the upstart Tampa Bay Bucs leading the south while in what would seem upside down to some, Washington and the New York Giants lead the east. Jim Harbaugh has San Francisco 3-1 in the West. The Chicago Bears, Atlanta Falcons, and the Dallas Cowboys, all in the playoffs last year are 2-2 with Dallas being the most embarrassing of the field coughing up leads grabbing defeat from the jaws of victory. Why do the national media barkers still make excuses for Dallas and consider Tony Romo a great quarterback. They suck! The biggest disappointment in the NFL this year could well be the Philadelphia Eagles, last in the east sharing that mark with Carolina, Arizona and St. Louis. Minnesota might be making Mike Shannahan’s decision to bench Donovan McNabb late last season not look so brash since the Vikings stand at 0-4 and look terrible on all counts. Seattle, who snuck into the playoffs with a miserable 7-9 rccord then blew up their roster, are also 0-4.

Would it be unreasonable to think the AFC Championship could be Baltimore versus Buffalo and the NFC Detroit versus San Francisco?  The Harbaugh brothers will have something to say about their brother’s fate going head to head in Baltimore on Thanksgiving night.

New Orleans (-6 ½) @ Carolina

Panthers QB will take another bold step in his maturation facing the tough division rivals, New Orleans Saints. Considering where things stand with the Panthers, it’s okay to speak of moral victories. That’s the best they can achieve.

Arizona @ Minnesota (-3)

We’ll go against the odd makers ad pick Arizona. There’s something about the Vikings that seems especially blighted this year.

Oakland @ Houston (-4)

This game should be Houston’s all the way. It is worth noting the maverick owner, Al Davis, who has led Oakland since its early days died yesterday. The character of the team will never be the same – for better or worse.

Philadelphia (-3) @ Buffalo

The Eagles should play better than they’ve shown so far this year, and Buffalo isn’t likely as good as the 3-0 team they started with. This game is really in the hands of the Eagles’ defense. If the can stifle Buffalo’s offense, they’ll win.

Seattle @ New York Giants (-9 ½)

This game should be the Giants, no contest.

Cincinnati @ Jacksonville

This is a tough pick. Las Vegas didn’t post. Let’s give the win to Jacksonville, slight home field advantage. Those empty seats can make a lot of noise.

Kansas City @ Indianapolis (-2 ½)

The Colts have played close against the Steelers so perhaps here’s their first win unless they’re sandbagging already for draft pick considerations.

Tennessee @ Pittsburgh (-3)

Playing at home and feeling a sense of urgency, the Steelers are well motivated to beat Tennessee, but the Titans have beaten Baltimore making this a tough game for Pittsburgh. The howling about the Steelers officially being in decline will become very loud if they lose this one and there’s a good chance they will.

Tampa Bay @ San Francisco (-3)

This game features two teams hot on proving themselves. Harbaugh inherited an undisciplined chaotic club house but appears to be getting them focused. Give the Niners the slight edge here.

New York Jets @ New England (-7 ½)

For the Jets and their verbose coach, Rex Ryan, yes it really is that serious. If they lose, as expected to New England, they’d be two games behind their division rivals with a three game losing streak after being mauled on national television by the Baltimore Ravens last week. While the Belehick boys might not be the most potent team New England has ever fielded and their defense I soft compared to Baltimore’s, Tom Brady, Wes Welker and crew are good bets to ground the Jets.

San Diego (-4) @ Denver

Denver’s a mighty unhappy place for Broncos fans whose whimpers will turn into outright violent sobbing with a few chants of “Tebow! Tebow” thrown in as the Bolts blasat them.

Green Bay (-6) @ Atlanta

Hey wasn’t Atlanta supposed o be a contender this year? Tomorrow’s menu – peaches smothered in cheese.

Chicago @ Detroit (-5 ½)

This is a great game for Detroit to show they’re for real and go 5-0. The Bears have only been inconsistent this year. A likely loss puts them two games behind Detroit and probably Green Bay too.

It’s a tough sport, ain’t it?

Sprint Cup 2011: Race 29 -- Dover, It's Monster Mash Time for the Chase

The 2011 Sprint Cup Chase, the underlying truth drivers know all to well… things can go from good to bad in a matter of seconds, but once things are bad, the road to good might be out of reach. After two races, only Denny Hamlin looks out of the picture, though nothing short of exceptional racing will find other teams deep in the standings from being in fighting shape in Homestead, FL after the 10^th Chase race. Dover is a track that with its unforgiving high banks can destroy a race car with the slightest slip and at Dover, track position is everything. With this in mind, Tony Stewart and Kevin Harvick will have their bands full holding their top two starts with Stewart starting 28^th and Harvick in 22^nd on the grid. Meanwhile, Jeff Gordon, 5^th in points, starts just above the rolling trash heap in 34^th position.

Chase drivers starting position by standings:

1-      Tony Stewart, #14, Chevrolet (26^th)

2-      Kevin Harvick, #29, Chevrolet (22^nd)

3-      Brad Keselowski, #2, Dodge (15^th)

4-      Carl Edwards, #99, Ford (4^th)

5-      Jeff Gordon, #24, Chevrolet (34^th)

6-      Kyle Busch, #18, Toyota (5^th)

7-      Matt Kenseth, #17, Ford (18^th)

8-      Dale Earnhardt Jr., #88, Chevrolet (21^st)

9-      Kurt Busch, #22, Dodge (2^nd)

10-  Jimmie Johnson, #48, Chevrolet (6^th)

11-  Ryan Newman, #39, Chevrolet (20^th)

12-  Denny Hamlin, #11, Toyota (11^th)

If Jimmie Johnson wants to intimidate the field into believing he’s in hot pursuit of his 6^th consecutive championship, Dover could be just the place to prove it. Given an excellent starting position and a win in last year’s September race at the track, this would be a great launching pad for Johnson’s surge forward. Since 2006, the beginning of his championship tenure, Johnson won both 2009 races. Starting 18^th might not be an ideal position for starting at Dover, but Matt Kenseth won the spring race, his first since a spring win in 2006.  Kyle Busch who won last year’s spring race, looks poised for success in 5^th starting position. He also tamed the monster in spring, 2008. If consistency is the best measure, Carl Edwards has the highest average finish at Dover at 7.7. With a 4^th starting position and the proven ability to stay out of trouble could find the #99 Ford atop the leaders. Edwards also won the 2007 fall race.

The driver needing the most help at Dover, Denny Hamlin, is also the driver based on past history least likely to take advantage of the track having only two career top fives, four top tens, and an average 20.9. Kurt Busch with five top fives but only seven top tens averages an 18.7 finish, not good for him. Kevin Harvick with no wins and two top fives with an average of 17 and Dale Earnhardt Jr. who has tamed the monster once with seven top tens has been bitten badly too with his 17.7 average.

While Jimmie Johnson is the big winner of the field showing six wins, eight top fives, and thirteen top fives, his 9.6 avearage finish is behind Carl Edwards who shows an average of 7.6 with only one win, six top fives, and ten top tens.

Weather should not be a factor for the race with partly cloudy conditions and temperatures just touching 60^o, conditions are favorable for good racing.

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NFL 2011 - Week 3 -- The Season's Real Story Begins to Emerge

The third week of the NFL season is when some of the real stories for the season start to emerge, the 4^th week confirms it. Believe it or not, the first quarter of the season will be finished at the conclusion of Monday night’s game just as the MLB playoffs hit high gear.

Perhaps the biggest story for the year so far is the Indianapolis Colts losing Peyton Manning due to neck surgery for the season and the team’s total collapse without him. The Colts are projected to lose by 10 points visiting Tampa Bay Monday night.

The incredible success of a team that’s been a bottom dweller since the Jim Kelly days, the Buffalo Bills riding high at 3-0 and their savaging of New England is another “who’d have thought it?” tale. While we’re raving about 3-0 teams, how about the Detroit Lions who until showing much improvement last year had been the laughing stock of the NFL since Barry Sanders days running the ball. The other 3-0 team is the Green Bay Packers, no surprise there for the defending Super Bowl Champs.

The remaining 0-3 teams: Miami, Kansas City, Minnesota, and Seattle weren’t expected to be gangbusters but remember KC and Seattle were weak playoff teams last year.

Perhaps the remaining surprise is how ineffective the Philadelphia Eagles have been thus far. Remember when signing on as a mere backup QB, Vince Young made bold pronouncements about the Eagles as a “dream team?” They’re 1-2 while the rest of the division is 2-1.

Aside from what’s noted above, NFL parity prevails as teams work to break out atop the heap. Eyes will be on Baltimore Sunday night to see if the Ravens or the New York Jets might be one of those teams to do so. One will emerge well positioned to rule the season; the other falls back into the pack and has much work to do especially given the strength of division rivals.

Here’s our picks for week four.

Washington (-1 ½) @ St. Louis

The Redskins defense should be strong enough to keep St. Louis locked down.

Detroit @ Dallas (-1 ½)

Here’s where Detroit can prove they’re for real and keep Dallas as all talk and no walk.

Pittsburgh @ Houston (-4)

Houston can prove they have finally become a true contender beating the perennial powerhouse from Pittsburgh, a team not as strong as expected so far this year.

Tennessee @ Cleveland (-1 ½)

These are the tough picks. Teams not thought to be too strong who have shown flashes of good play so far this year. We’ll give the edge to the Titans.

Buffalo (-3) @ Cincinnati

This is the kind of game Buffalo has to win to prove they are for real. Cincinnati hasn’t shown much in 2011.

New Orleans (=7) @ Jacksonville

Jacksonville has shown nothing so far this year and the Saints are strong. No contest here.

Minnesota (-1 ½) @ Kansas City

If the Vikings have any fight left in them, this would be the gae to show it, but Donovan McNabb looks so old while the rest of the team looks clueless, KC needs its first win and are playing at home.

San Francisco @ Philadelphia (-8 ½)

Jim Harbaugh has much to do to make the 49’ers true competitors. They just don’t have it glued together well enough to beat Philadelphia despite Michael Vick’s injury.

Atlanta (-4.5) at Seattle

It’s time for Atlanta to perk up after a weak start. A trip to the grungy Northwest should do it.

New York Giants (-2 ½) @ Arizona

If the Giants play with a little consistency, this game should be theres.

Denver @ Green Bay (-12 ½)

Playing in Green Bay should show up all the weaknesses Denver has in 2011. Fans back home will be shouting Tebow at their televisions despite the popular QB from Florida is not ready for prime time.

Miami @ San Diego (-7)

Miami’s headed for a terrible 0-4. San Diego at home should win with ease.

New England (-4 ½) @ Oakland

Oakland looks tough in 2011, but the Patriots are the Patriots. Easy call.

New York Jets @ Baltimore (-3 ½)

Call this the trash talk bowl. It will be a brawl in Crab Town as the two powerful defenses attempt to rule the day but the Ravens will prevail.

Indianapolis @ Tampa Bay (-10)

Who’d believe the mighty Colts would be a ten point underdog visiting Central Florida? It’s for real and it won’t be pretty.

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2011 Orioles: Grand Finale Masks a Season of Cruel Reality's Truimph Over Glimmers of Preseason Hope

The arch-rival Red Sox only need three outs in the ninth. Their accomplished closer, Jonathan Papelbon who’d proven to be almost a sure thing to secure the close, took the mound. The Orioles had the bottom of their order coming to the plate, with two out, all that remained was fill-in second baseman, Robert Andino, and the Sox would secure their expected playoff berth. Andino’s hit secured by a smoking hot double to the wall by left-fielder, Nolan Reimold, deep down the depth chart and playing in Norfolk on Opening Day paced the Orioles to a dramatic walk off win, and the Red Sox complete another historic choke – put Nolan Reimold in the book of Boston curses along with Bucky Dent.

This kind of bold ending would have been the perfect end to the Orioles’ 2011 season especially given the expectations behind this team in April, but in truth as the team celebrated as if they were a team play-off bound being the one team with the greatest claims to destroying the 2011 Red Sox, it was but a rare up moment in a season that had to provide a brutal reality check for a team that has not had a winning season since 1997, and saw one of their most beloved long-time members of the organization, MASN broadcaster, former Cy Young and World Champion Orioles pitcher, and head of baseball operations when the Rafael Palmeiro rocked perhaps the most competitive season the Orioles was found dead on his Sparks, Maryland farm from a self-inflicted shotgun blast. There was no escaping the realization that for a man who had been a loyal part of the Orioles organization as a player and after retirement his personal unraveling was strongly influenced by the team’s futility and his inability to help right the team he dearly loved though emerging star catcher, Matt Wieters, was his draft pick. This was the year his front office successor, Andy McPhail, a man with exemplary baseball pedigree and a history of building winners, was supposed to have had the results of his leadership show tangible results, but the 2011 season will be far more remembered for what happened in July than a triumphant finale at the end of September.

Baltimore baseball fans couldn’t help but feeling good to see the Orioles sweep the Red Sox four games in Boston last week and then beat them 2 out of three at home to close the season eliminating the Red Sox bid for the last American League playoff slot. For Orioles’ fans it’s always sweet to beat the Red Sox or Yankees who seem to take deed of the stadium every tie they come to Camden Yard overwhelming the locals with New York tough or Massachusetts arrogance as if Oriole Park were an annex to Yankee Stadium or Fenway park.  The Orioles played well in September winning 15 games and losing 13 games. That’s where the cheering ends. They finished the season at 69-93 making it six consecutive years with finishes of 92 or more losses and their fourteenth consecutive losing season.

When the joys of ousting Boston subside and the 2011 is seen in its totality, for those expecting a move toward respectability after their superb performance after Buck Showalter’s hiring as manager winning the most games in the American league during the last two weeks of the season, it looked like after heading for historic calamity early in the season under Dave Trembley’s ineffective stewardship, the rebuilding of the Orioles started in earnest midway through the 2007 season was paying off. With Matt Wieters developing into a top catcher, Adam Jones becoming a team leader in center field, and ever dependable, Nick Markakis in right field supplemented with perennial top performer, Brian Roberts returning from injury, the Orioles were starting to have what would look like a dependable nucleus on offense from players who excelled in the field. The young pitchers: Jake Arrieta, Brian Matusz, Brad Bergesen, and Chris Tillman showed improvement down the stretch suggesting that they were nearing at least quality starter material for the following year.

The vision of a winning team in Baltimore, once such a proud and lively baseball team, was starting to come into focus. Andy McPhail’s strategy was to grow pitching and buy bats. To that end, McPhail signed for free agents and made trades giving up no prominent players to obtain Mark Reynolds, a free swinging power hitting 3^rd baseman; Derrek Lee, a well-rounded superb fielding veteran 1^st baseman who had a substandard 2009 season with a hand injury; J.J. Hardy, a fine fielding shortstop with a strong bat and some power, and Vladmir Guerrero, a veteran superb hitter whose power numbers were showing some decline down the stretch in Texas. Luke Scott then would patrol left field giving what could be a strong lineup top to bottom ready to take on the AL East bullies.  Kevin Gregg signed as closer.

With all this promise it didn’t take long; however, for the Orioles to show too many familiar old problems. Unlike the disastrous beginning in 2010, the Orioles weren’t blown out early. In fact, they were only down one game for April at 12-13, but in May, a seven game stretch losing six out of seven games widened the win/loss differential but still they weren’t out of the picture at the end of May. Their May 16^th loss to Boston might very well be the epitaph on the 2011 season. What appeared to be of no major consequence, Brian Roberts shaken up by a head first slide into first base where he finished the game resulted his loss for the season with a concussion and related head wound trauma. Closer Kevin Gregg blew the save and lost the game. A four game losing streak in June pushed the differential wider apart with the month finishing with a three game losing streak to the St. Louis Cardinals at Camden Yards made the visions of hope at the start of the season start to look like another ill-fated scheme, but the losing at the end of June continued into an all out collapse before the All-Star break winning only one game in July before the break, taking a nine game losing streak into midseason. Only a mad idealist would see the 2011 team as not being the 14^th consecutive loser.

The pitching fell apart with starters giving up big leads early and the bullpen being over taxed. After the break they’d go six and eleven and find themselves 21 games under .500. Grumbling of a possible 100 loss season started to become all too real. The Orioles were heading for a worse season than 2010. The promise of the future, the young starters were in Norfolk, Bowie, or on the disabled list more than they were in Baltimore. August started out just as horribly, 5-14 up to August 22 when they began a six game winning streak starting with six game winning streak, four against the Twins and two against the Yankees. No one would see a good September in the works losing five out of six before winning three games September 7-9^th which only gave way to three more losses. Some September, eh?

By now, the team on the field aside from the most obvious names, looked more like the Norfolk Tides than the Baltimore Orioles, but the only team in the remaining season would all be contenders except Toronto. Not only did they help knock the Angels out of contention for the AL West, but the Orioles finished with seven out of eleven games against the Boston Red Sox. They won six and lost one pushing the Sox out of what looked like a sure Wild Card berth.

By now Baltimore’s moved on. The Grand Prix racing in Baltimore over Labor Day weekend gave Baltimore fans an entirely new kind of live sports to fall in love with while the Ravens played brilliantly in two out of their first three games. “The Orioles, oh yeah, them, they suck. What else is new?”

So what to do for next year?  There simply cannot be the optimism for the 2012 team there was for 2011, and where does the team go?  Would it even be feasible to enter into the Prince Fielder sweepstakes to add a power hitter who’d be spraying homeruns out of cozy Camden Yards? Would a player of his value sign for a team that hasn’t had anything important to show since 1997?

The team can pencil in J.J. Hardy at shortstop, Brad Wieters behind the plate, Adam Jones in center field, and Nick Markakis in right field. Is Brian Roberts still a possibility? If he could return to his level of play through the 2009 season or how he played once healthy last year, that would be a huge relief?  Mark Reynolds might be a keeper for his nasty homerun bat, but he’s a terrible third baseman and they’d be likely to add a first baseman. Left field, Luke Scott would likely be the starter but his fielding is horrible, and for a streaky hitter coming off of surgery, what’s his value to the team. The corner infield, left field, and possibly 2^nd base are all questions.

The starting pitching is so full of questions with Jake Arietta if heeled looking like a young starter on the move. Zach Britton is getting better, but Brad Bergesen, Brian Matusz, and Chris Tillman are hugely unpredictable. What to do with the bullpen? Jim Johnson looks strong in any position. Do they really want Kevin Gregg’s self-destruction grabbing losses out of should be wins?

Andy McPhail came to Baltimore with credentials of being a solid GM building two World champs in Minnesota, and helping the Chicago Cubs become contenders amidst shaky ownership. However, his tenure in Baltimore starting in mid 2007 inheriting a team with dreadful expectations winning 40 and losing 53 under his time on the job does not spell success.  Since then the records are as follows:

2008: W-68, L-93

2009: W-64, L-98

2010: W-66, L-96

2011: W 69, L-93

So where’s the improvement?  The Orioles have finally found a state of the art, modern spring training facility in Sarasota, and minor league operations have been streamlined and more tightly supervised with almost all minor league teams in close orbit to Baltimore:  Tides, AAA, Norfolk, VA; Bay Sox, AA, Bowie, MD; Keys, Advanced A, Frederick, MD; Shorebirds, A, Salisbury, MD; and Ironbirds, short season A, Aberdeen, MD. With a stronger infrastructure though, the Orioles are not loaded with can’t miss talent in the minors spare shortstop Manny Machado who is moving right up the levels perhaps ready for Baltimore in 2013.

Some wonder if McPhail, whose contract expires this winter, will remain with the organization. On the criteria fans recognize, his tenure is not successful, while close observers most concede the overall health of the organization was far worse than realized when he joined the club.

What makes the 2011 season hurt so badly for serious fans. This was the year where winning was to be in reach and the move toward being a contender would take off from there. Can anyone look at how the 2011 season played out and see a winning team in the near future much less articulate a clear formula that could see the once proud franchise become a winner again in the toughest division in baseball. To even suggest there might be good signs for 2014 would have to be based on something that’s in the early stages of development now. Who can point out those potential players or resources that will make that so?

Here comes the hot stove season. Fans will be absorbed in the Ravens and if the Ravens play according to plan should be around in post season play until just before pitchers and catchers report.

We await to hear the team’s assessment, but the Baltimore Orioles are firmly established as one of pro sports’ most perennial losers with their great legacy becoming more and more a treasure of generations gone by.

The post season begins with a hollow, empty feeling. Where are the seeds of hope?

A generation of young Baltimore sports fans have never known what used to be such a joyful certainty, winning baseball in Baltimore.

NFL 2011 - Week 3 -- Some teams getting close to wait until next year while Detroit should be 3-0.

Jacksonville @ Carolina (-3 ½)

Wow, the lowly Carolina Panthers are favored? Cam Newton has looked strong in his first two starts against stronger teams, now is the chance for him to achieve his first NFL win. He has the right heart and spirit to do it. Pick the Panthers.

Houston @ New Orleans (-4)

Houston’s an improving team but not strong enough to beat the well-established Saints.

New England (-7) @ Buffalo

Though this is a battle of two 2-0 teams, not all is created equal and the Bills great start will end with their first loss.

Miami @ Cleveland (-2)

Two pretty lousy teams, Vegas says the Browns. We say the fish.

San Francisco @ Cincinnati (-2 ½)

Here are two hard to predict teams, but the “Niners” should come east and the go home with a win.

New York Giants @ Philadelphia (-8 ½)

This won’t be as easy as it looks for Philadelphia with Michael Vick on the mends, but still, the Giants have more holes than a slice of Swiss cheese.

Detroit (-3) @ Minnesota

Consider this, the once hapless Lions will be 3-0 afer this game.

Denver @ Tennessee (-7)

The Baltimore Ravens learned the hard way Tennessee is no team to look beyond. They should dominate Denver and win convincingly.

Baltimore (-4 ½) @ St. Louis

The Tennessee Titans gave the Ravens a rude wakeup call. They also dealt out numerous injuries. The Ravens cannot take St. Louis lightly or they’ll repeat last week’s fiasco. A properly motivated Ravens team will win.

New York Jets (-3) @ Oakland

The battle of the NFL bad boys, but Rex and the Jets will take care of the Raiders.

Kansas City @ San Diego (-14 ½)

Kansas City was a team getting better last year. They seem to be full speed in reverse a year later, a big win for the Bolts.

Green Bay (-4) @ Chicago

It’s Green Bay all the way.

Pittsburgh (-10) @ Indianapolis

The national TV audience will see a team getting kicked when its down when the Steelers play the Colts in Indianapolis. The horrible feeling of 0-3 will be a tough burden for a team that has enjoyed so much success in the Peyton Manning era.

Washington @ Dallas (-5 ½)

Tony Romo is not healthy. The Skins ave played strong defense this year. Should the Redskins continue how they’ve played this year and not fall back into previous years’ woe’s, they’lll handle the Cowboys.

Sprint Cup 2011: Race 28 -- New Hampshire - Is already a last chance for some chasers?

With one race down and nine to go, championship hopes have already been dealt a serious blow to some drivers while some dogged by a mediocre season suddenly look hot, but this is only after one race. The setbacks can be irreversible, but success is only as strong as the next race.  Adding to the intrigue, Chicago came down to being a fuel mileage race where a number of Chase participants ran short of fuel, and ironically, Tony Stewart, who was in the lead until the last lap in last year’s opener all but ruining his shot for a third championship, turned out to be the victor just seven points behind Kevin Harvick’s lead in the points.

A hot driver going into the Chase, Jeff Gordon set back significantly Gordon with his 24^th place finish dropped to 11th in the standings. Meanwhile, Matt Kenseth also ran out of gas and getting a push from J.J. Yeley disqualified his finish dropping him to the front on of the 1^st lap down, 21^st place. The result, Kenseth stands in 10^th in the standings.

Of course nobody’s in worse shape than Denny Hamlin who squeaked into the chase gaining the 2^nd wild card, but with his 31^st place finish, it’s wait until next year already.

As those drivers were frustrated and Kevin Harvick held his lead with a second place drivers, the two drivers who had to qualify for the Chase in Richmond, are positioned to run for the championship, Tony Stewart couldn’t’ have found a better race for his first win, finally. Meanwhile, Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s 3^rd place finish put him in …..

The top of the finishing order was full of Chasers, Carl Edwards, 4^th; Brad Keselowski, 5^th; Kurt Busch, 6^th; Ryan Newman, 8^th; Jimmie Johnson, 10^th. For the rest of the “chasers” it would b more difficult from Johnson’s 10^th, the next chase driver is Matt Kenseth in 21^st, followed by Kyle Busch, 22^nd; Jeff Gordon, 24^th;  and Hamlin buried in the desperation spot, 31^st.

The new points system where only one point separates each position in the standings and there is no fonr loading with more points for higher finishes, a couple good runs don’t make the difference they would in years past when the driver who wins the race gets 3 points for being in first place, 1 point for leading a lap, and 43 points for being in 1^st place with each position after that only being reduced by one point, 42 points for 2^nd, 41 for 3^rd, etc. Additionally, the driver with the most points gains a bonus point.

Going into tomorrow’s race, the starting position is shown for each driver in the chase.

1-      Kevin Harvick (#29), 2054 pts, starts 6^th.

2-      Tony Stewart (#14), 2047 pts, starts 20^th

3-      Carl Edwards (#99), 2044 pts, starts 23^rd

4-      Kurt Busch (#22), 2043 pts, starts 2^nd

5-      Dale Earnhardt Jr. (#88), 2041pts, starts 12^th

6-      Brad Keselowski, (#2), 2040 pts, starts 16^th

7-      Ryan Newman, (#39), 2040 pts, starts 1^st

8-      Jimmie Johnson, (#48), 2038 pts, starts 10^th

9-      Kyle Busch (#18), 2035 pts, starts 8^th

10-  Matt Kenseth (#17), 2030 pts, starts 27^th

11-  Jeff Gordon (#24), 2029 pts, starts 7^th

12-  Denny Hamlin (#11), 2013 pts, starts 28^th

How hard is it at this point, consider Denny Hamlin must gain 41 points to tie for first, Jeff Gordon needs 35 points, Mat Kenseth – 34 points, and Kyle Busch is behind 19 points out. The commentators have pointed out, there’s no such thing as a Mulligan in the 2012 chase. With each week, the task becomes tougher. Right now, drivers need to shoot for top 10 or better to continue effectively leading the fight to the following week.

The 2012 Chase will have a different character for sure until or unless Jimmie Johnson moves out in front. From that moment forward, it would seem like business as usual.

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Sprint Cup 2011: Race 27 -- The Chase is on in Chicago

The 2011 Chase for the Championship begins tomorrow afternoon as twelve drivers contend to be the 2011 Champ, 11 of them attempting to prevent Jimmie Johnson and the #48 team from gaining their 6th consecutive champsionship, and who'd really want to pick against them?

Who can beat them? Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick have four wins each, but both have also had some terrible finishes. Terrible finishes kill Chase drives. Jeff Gordon, Johnson's team mate has three wins and the championship "know how" having four championships of his own. The #24 team seems to be getting in a good grove when things matter most. Carl Edwards has been one hot performer for most of the season, but is disaster prone. He's perhaps the best Ford hope for a championship. Then how about Brad Keselowski who's been the hottest driver down the stretch with three wins that propelled him into the first wild card slot. The remaining drivers just don't look that strong. The good news for Stewart-Haas is that both Tony Stewart and Ryan Newman made the chase but Ryan Newman has their only win. Quiet Kenseth, Matt Kenseth has two wins, but has had a rather bland season. Dale Earnhardt Jr. is winless and hasn't been too strong through the summer. Kurt Busch has likewise faded deeper into the season. Denny Hamlin has one win and just enough points to be the second wild card contender.

Here is how the chase contenders line up and where they stand in the field.

1- Matt Kenseth, #17, Ford (1st)
2- Kurt Busch, #22, Dodge (3rd)
3- Ryan Newman, #39, Chevrolet (4th)
4- Carl Edwards, #99, Ford (5th)
5- Brad Keselowski, #2, Dodge (6th)
6- Kyle Busch, #18, Toyota (8th)
7- Jimmie Johnson, #48, Chevrolet (12th)
8- Dale Earnhardt, Jr., #88, Chevrolet (19th)
9- Jeff Gordon, #24, Chevrolet (23rd)
10- Tony Stewart, #14, Chevrolet (26th)
11- Denny Hamlin, #11, Toyota, (27th)
12- Kevin Harvick, #29, Chevrolet (30th)

Drivers are awarded three points in the Chase standings for each win. Thus with the top contenders having four wins, they enjoy a 12 point spread over the winless drivers in the chase. The Chase awards are as follows.

Points Standings
1- Kyle Busch, 4 wins, 2012 points
2- Kevin Harvick, 4 wins, 2012 points
3- Jeff Gordon, 3 wins, 2009 points
4- Matt Kenseth, 2 wins, 2006 points
5- Carl Edwards, 1 win, 2003 points
6- Jimmie Johnson, 1 win, 2003 points
7- Kurt Busch, 1 win, 2003 points
8- Ryan Newman, 1 win, 2003 points
9- Tony Stewart, 2000 points
10- Dale Earnhardt Jr., 2000 points

Wild Cards
1- Brad Keselowski, 2 wins, 2000 points
2- Denny Hamlin, 1 win, 2000 points

It will be interesting to see what drivers appear to have something to prove from outside the Chase field. It looks like Clint Bowyer is a lame duck headed to Michael Waltrip with Five Hour Energy sponsorship. Kasey Kahne, of course, will take Kenny Francis to the #5 car with Hendrick Motorsports.  Will Mark Martin be able to fill out the rest of the year's schedule with Stewart-Haas racing when Danica Patrick is not racing? No number has been selected for that ride, and Robby Gordon insists he'll be back in some capacity retaining the #7 further insulting the memory of Alan Kulwicki.

It probably won't happen, but it sure would make racing more interesting and competative if NASCAR would seriously reduce the starting field. 43 cars is far too many. Somewhere between 33 to 37 makes more sense.

NFL 2011: Week Two -- NFL Analysts Have Too Much to Say

Good grief, between the clowns at ESPN, round the clock football on NFL Network, and every lesser or regional sports network trying to get its say in, every week of the NFL season has to be defined in epic proportions, every game must be significant and long range predictions based on one game flow like flood water.

Consider the Baltimore Ravens thumping the Pittsburgh Steelers at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore. While the national media hasn't proclaimed the Ravens a Superbowl contender yet, the Steelers have been subjected to all kinds of analysis from the Super Bowl Loser's curse to notions that their defense is suddenly dying of old age. Can't we just state the obvious -- the Ravens handed their arch rival Steelers a good old fashioned ass whoopin'. The Steelers will almost certainly look more like themselves, more than a two touchdown favorite hosting the Seattle Seahawks who miraculously made the playoffs from a dreadful division last year.

Are the Indianapolis Colts absolutely finished until Peyton Manning returns? Okay, Houston clubbed them last week. Houston beat them in last year's season's opener too. They host the Cleveland Browns this week who Vegas has given a 2.5 point edge. The Browns can rescue defeat from the jaws of victory no matter who they play. The Lucas Oil Dome crowd will be all over them.

The Dallas Cowboys apologists are running wild. Hey they got beatten by New York Jets who beat them by a field goal. Tony Romo is so misunderstood. Well can anyone understand why he almost always sucks in the 4th quarter. Dallas could, would, should.... this logic grows old. There's been nothing much to really respect about this team since Aikman-Smith-Irvin wore the star helmets.

Cam Newton is the next Michael Vick, Peyton Manning, or Tom Brady after an impressive but losing performance where the Carolina Panthers lost to Arizona.

After getting thumped by division rival Washington, New York Giants head coach, Tom Coughlin is as good as fired and it looks like Eli Manning will never materialize into a winning NFL quarterback as if he never won a Super Bowl.

Make it official, the New York Jets are going to the Super Bowl, but then Rex Ryan says that every week doesn't he?

So let's look at week two and see what's going to be the big talk tomorrow:

Baltimore Ravens (-6) @ Tennessee Titans
Ray Lewis, Haloti Nagda, Terrell Suggs, and Ed Reed will do some fancy country line dancing all over the Tennessee offense while the fast paced Ravens offense will have Ray Rice running like a moonshiner. A strong effort by the Ravens should equal a big win.

Arizona Cardinals @ Washington Redskins (-4)
The Redskins should win convincingly, but it's way too soon to say Shenanigans and son have he Skins straightened out.

Seattle Seahawks @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-14.5)
Around 4:00 pm tomorrow, the Steelers loss last week to Baltimore will be a distant memory after they win by more than two touchdowns over Coach Geez-Whiz's misfits.

Cleveland Browns (-2.5) @ Indianapolis Colts
Kerry Collins will look like a Quarterback with Super Bowl experience providing enough for the Colts to beat the "Mistake by the Lake."

Kansas City Chiefs @ Detroit Lions (-8)
EGADS, the Lions are favored by 8 points!!! The Lions will start the season 2-0. Look out world and hear the Lions roar!!!

Oakland Raiders @ Buffalo Bills (-3)
Okay a lot of folks jumped on the Buffalo Bills' bandwagon after their total ass kicking dealt the Kansas City Chiefs, a playoff team last year, 41- 7, but then there were those who were convinced Oakland who did beat Denver by a field goal last week as the toast of the NFC West. This game is a close call, but the Bills should defeat Oakland who along with everything else had a short week playing a late Monday night game in Denver before having to regroup and head to western New York.

Tampa Bay @ Minnesota Vikings (-3)
The Vikings are pursuing the same strategy they did a year ago which brought down the roof in Minnesota, hire an over-the-hill quarterback. If there's any shot Donovan McNabb has anything left, he can prove it by beating Tampa, but we're going to pick youth and enthusiasm over a real nice guy with not much left.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets (-8.5)
The Jets will look as brilliant as head coach, Rex Ryan, says they are as they beat the NFL's most unknown team.

Chicago Bears @ New Orleans Saints (-7)
It's hard to feel strong about New Orleans given their loss to Green Bay and how impressively the Bears beat Atlanta, a likely contender, so convincingly last week. This game is really a coin flip regardless of what Vegas says, but we'll stick with the Saints. They're just too well balanced to be defeated by "Dah Bears."

Green Bay Packers (-10) @ Carolina Panthers
Welcome to the NFL Mr. Cam Newton. Be careful or else you'll be on your back admiring how Carolina blue the sky is as the Packers defense has a little welcoming reception for you. The Packers will give the young, gifted QB some serious growing pains for sure.

Dallas Cowboys (-3) @ San Francisco 49'ers
This will be a test of how well first year coach, Jim Harbaugh, has brought discipline and drive into a team known for being slackers and underachievers in the past. If they play a solid controlled game and hurt Tony Romo's feelings, they'll win.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Denver Broncos (-4)
It's tough to pick winners when both teams aren't very good. This game could be more a matter of which team doesn't give away the game than does something distinguished to win. Marvin Lewis is among the longest tenured coaches in the game now. Why should such a good man have to suffer so long with such a confused and crappy organizations?

San Diego Chargers @ New England Patriots (-7)
A team that's always supposed to be so good but typically comes up short against one of the most dependable teams in the game, New England should win convincingly.

Houston Texans(-3) @ Miami Dolphins
The Texans need to win and look good doing so to show that they are finally more than an up and coming expansion team. They should have the chance to do so.

Philadelphia (-2.5) @ Atlanta Falcons
What a great game for the Sunday night national TV audience, Michael Vick's first game as a starter in Atlanta. In Vick's absense despite all the fireworks he's brought to Philadelphia replacing a worn out Donovan McNabb, Matt Ryan has earned a spot as a most capable QB in Atlanta. Atlanta looked horrible in game one versus Chicago. The Eagles appear to have everything going for them. The Eagles should win convincingly.

St. Louis Rams @ New York Giants (-6)
Yes, this is probably already a must win game for the New York Giants given how sloppy they looked in week one. The picture of the Giants as a team in disarray will get out of hand without dominating the Rams Monday night.