Sprint Cup 2012: Race 17 -- Hot Kentucky

Jimmie Johnson has five championships – only two drivers in the history of NASCAR have more, and while not having won last year, this year as the summer drive heats up, no driver on the circuit appears better poised to lead this season to a champ’s cup in November. Reinforcing that perception, look whose on the pole for tomorrow night’s Quaker State 400 – the #48 Lowes Chevrolet. It would be no surprise then that last year’s winner and the driver who has dominated the track in the Nationwide Series, Kyle Busch, joins Johnson on the front row. The second row consists of two drivers badly in need of a good boost for the 2012 season, Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick, still winless. Two drivers needing a better outcome buried deep in the field are the two who completed to the last lap to decide last year’s championship: Tony Stewart in 22^nd and Carl Edwards, winless and one position outside the top ten in 25^th.

This is only the second Sprint Cup race at Kentucky which from a driver’s standpoint does not handle like other conventional 1 ½ mile tracks. Tomorrow night’s race will still be largely a learning experience. There is nothing to be learned by up to eight entries that almost certainly will pull off the track, suck in their earnings, and clutter up the field as NASCAR refuses to either reduce its starting field or set minimum requirements for team resources entering a race. In an impound race where teams have to severely compromise their qualifying setup, race track scabs like Joe Nemechek, a retired drive for all practical purposes except being there when the green flag drops, starts right in the thick of the action at 27^th. While we hope the consequences won’t pull out any true competitors, that the #87 would be involved in a blazing crash would only be just as would any other of the so called “start and park” fraudulent entries. We’re waiting for this trend to extent to small market teams in baseball that will pull two outfielders and a shortstop before going once through the batting order. Yes, start and park is that stupid.

Starting Lineup: ("DNQ" indicates "did not qualify)

Pos	Car#	Driver	Manufactuer	MPH
1	48	Jimmie Johnson	Lowe's Dover White Chevy	181.818
2	18	Kyle Busch	M&M's Red-White-Blue Toyota	181.421
3	11	Denny Hamlin	FedEx Express Toyota	181.147
4	29	Kevin Harvick	Budweiser Folds of Honor Chevy	180.367
5	39	Ryan Newman	Tornados Chevy	180.337
6	15	Clint Bowyer	5-hour Energy Toyota	180.228
7	88	Dale Earnhardt Jr.	Diet Mnt.Dew/National Guard Chevy	180.222
8	2	Brad Keselowski	Miller Lite Dodge	180.204
9	24	Jeff Gordon	Drive to End Hunger Chevy	180.036
10	56	Martin Truex Jr.	NAPA Auto Parts Toyota	179.964
11	16	Greg Biffle	American Red Cross Ford	179.754
12	9	Marcos Ambrose	Mac Tools Ford	179.509
13	43	Aric Almirola	Eckrich Ford	179.336
14	51	Kurt Busch	Phoenix Construction Services, Inc. Chevy	179.206
15	27	Paul Menard	Menards/Sylvania Chevy	179.075
16	22	AJ Allmendinger	Shell Pennzoil Dodge	179.045
17	1	Jamie McMurray	McDonald's Chevy	178.992
18	20	Joey Logano	Dollar General Toyota	178.867
19	5	Kasey Kahne	Quaker State Chevy	178.737
20	17	Matt Kenseth	Fifth Third Bank Ford	178.230
21	13	Casey Mears	Valvoline NextGen Ford	177.825
22	14	Tony Stewart	Office Depot/Mobil 1 Chevy	177.801
23	83	Landon Cassill	Burger King Toyota	177.020
24	95	Scott Speed	Leavine Family Racing Ford	176.505
25	99	Carl Edwards	UPS Ford	176.217
26	78	Regan Smith	Furniture Row Chevy	175.970
27	87	Joe Nemechek	AM/FM Energy Wood & Pellet Stoves Toyota	175.730
28	47	Bobby Labonte	Scott Products Toyota	175.615
29	31	Jeff Burton	Caterpillar Chevy	175.211
30	26	Josh Wise #	MDS Transport Ford	175.080
31	42	Juan Pablo Montoya	Target Chevy	175.063
32	30	David Stremme	Inception Motorsports Toyota	174.757
33	34	David Ragan	Front Row Motorsports Ford	174.695
34	93	Travis Kvapil	Burger King Toyota	174.402
35	98	Michael McDowell	Presbyterian Health Care Ford	174.402
36	23	Scott Riggs	North TX Pipe Chevy	174.345
37	19	Mike Bliss(i)	Humphrey Smith Racing, LLC Toyota	174.272
38	10	David Reutimann	Outsourcing in the USA@TMone Chevy	173.511
39	55	Michael Waltrip	Aaron's Dream Machine Toyota	172.199
40	38	David Gilliland	Taco Bell Ford	170.573
41	32	Ken Schrader	Federated Auto Parts Ford	168.534
42	36	Dave Blaney	SealWrap Chevy	0.000
43	33	Stephen Leicht #	LittleJoesAuto.com Chevy	173.132
DNQ	49	J.J. Yeley	JPO Absorbents Toyota	172.612
DNQ	52	Mike Skinner	CrusaderStaffing.com Toyota	171.876

Evaluating the Field: The Last Race of the First Half Sets the Field for Ten Races to the Chase

Here it is – the last race of the first half of the 2012 Sprint Cup season, in what can be called the race that sets the field for the ten race chase to reach “The Chase.” So let’s take a look at who’s in and who’s out, and perhaps some insights what we’ll be seeing through the summer before the “hand of fate” picks twelve drivers to compete for the 2012 championship.

With two wins each, Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart, Denny Hamlin, and Brad Keselowski would almost certainly look like sure bets to at worst gain a wild card entrie, though Johnson in 4^th and Stewart in 5^th are the front runners to top the leader board once the chase formula is applied.

Greg Biffle in 2^nd place and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. in 3^rd place with one win each need to continue consistent finishes and they’re locked in. Matt Kenseth sits a top the standings but has no wins, consistent strong finishes will keep him in the field but one has to wonder how much a distraction his leaving Roush/Fenway will pressure the team. With one win each and their accumulated points, Kyle Busch (12^th in points) and Ryan Newman (13^th in points) currently hold the Wild Card. All that changes for the better if they can move into the top ten in points or if other drivers with a win move to over take them.  Two more drivers remain in the top ten without winning a race, Kevin Harvick in 6^th place (3 top 5’s, 8 top 10’s) and Martin Truex in 9^th place (4 top 5’s, 8 top 10’s). Carl Edwards, winless, with two top 5’s and eight top 10’s sits in 11^th place, no doubt an underachiever so far this season.

Let’s be realistic. Right now, the final twelve chasers will come from the drivers mentioned above every one of them in the top 13. Perhaps the most promising driver to leap into contention would be Joey Logano with one win in 15^th place. He’ll need to overcome a 49 point deficit to move in on points. What about Paul Menard in 14^th? Given the car #27 has zero top 5’s or top 10’s so far this season, the lack of quality finishes makes him a long shot. Kasey Kahne has one win, a second win changes everything but he’s 69 points out to make the top ten. So what about Jeff Gordon? Can anyone say something good about his situation without loads of “could’s?” In 18^th place 182 points out of the top ten, he will not make the chase on points – so winning is the only option and his car has run well before every imaginable form of misfortune has struck borne out with one top five and five top tens. Can Gordon win at least two out of the next eleven races? Possibly… However, the discussion is mute until he bags the first one and that hasn’t happened yet. Right now, it looks like Truex versus Edwards to secure the points advantage while Kyle Busch and Ryan Newman are looking over their shoulder to see how Joey Logano advances.

The only certainty is that winning changes everything.

Sprint Cup 2012: Race 16 - On the Road Again...

As the long summer stretch to the Chase gets into high gear, race #16 provides a diversion – a trip to the pastoral setting of California’s Sonoma wine country where debates over one’s preference for Merlot or Cabernet Sauvignon are hotter than ones of “Bow Ties” and “Blue Ovals,” with its track like no other on the Sprint Cup series, the 1.99 Sonoma Raceway, a road course, one of only two on the 2012 calendar. All will be put to test with tomorrow’ Toyota/Save Mart 350.

Road racing is, truthfully put, a diversion. Some fans are die-hard road racing fans wanting to see more events including a race in the chase while others would just assume see the series devoted exclusively to a variety of ovals. Regardless of fan preference, the skill set is different from regular series events giving some drivers the reputation of “road race specialists” while some of the lesser teams employ road race “ringers” to attempt to gain higher positions than their regular pilots could accomplish. Still, who are some of the current most successful road race drivers?  Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Kyle Busch, and Jimmy Johnson; however, two drivers including tomorrow’s pole sitter, the Tasmanian Devil himself, Marcos Ambrose and former Indy Car driver, Juan Pablo Montoya having only won on road courses are in the “specialist” category at least until they win on ovals, a feat looking closer all the time for the #9 car.

Despite the inclusion of some “ringers,” tomorrow’s starting lineup shows mostly well-established veterans at the top of the lineup. Jeff Gordon, a driver desperately in need of some good momentum lines up second on the front row beside Ambrose with teammate, Jimmie Johnson, lurking right behind with points leader, Greg Biffle, to his side. Dale Earnhardt Jr., yet to prove himself on road courses wanting to build momentum after last week’s big win, starts a mediocre 19^th while the master of almost anything with wheels whose season has cooled off after a hot start defending his championship, Tony Stewart starts a lowly 23^rd.

Complete lineup:

POS	CAR	DRIVER	MAKE	SPONSOR	SPEED
1	9	Marcos Ambrose	Ford	Stanley	95.262
2	24	Jeff Gordon	Chevrolet	Drive to End Hunger	95.067
3	48	Jimmie Johnson	Chevrolet	Lowe's	94.795
4	16	Greg Biffle	Ford	3M / US Stationary	94.722
5	56	Martin Truex Jr.	Toyota	NAPA Auto Parts	94.686
6	15	Clint Bowyer	Toyota	5-hour Energy	94.679
7	18	Kyle Busch	Toyota	M&M's	94.632
8	51	Kurt Busch	Chevrolet	Phoenix Construction Services	94.557
9	17	Matt Kenseth	Ford	Ford EcoBoost	94.524
10	39	Ryan Newman	Chevrolet	Quicken Loans/Childrens Tumor Foundation	94.509
11	99	Carl Edwards	Ford	Aflac	94.503
12	42	Juan Montoya	Chevrolet	Target	94.319
13	2	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	Miller Lite	94.269
14	20	Joey Logano	Toyota	The Home Depot	94.209
15	5	Kasey Kahne	Chevrolet	Farmers Insurance	94.206
16	11	Denny Hamlin	Toyota	FedEx Ground	94.199
17	22	AJ Allmendinger	Dodge	Shell / Pennzoil	94.184
18	47	Bobby Labonte	Toyota	Clorox	94.103
19	88	Dale Earnhardt Jr.	Chevrolet	Diet Mountain Dew/National Guard/7-Eleven	94.026
20	13	Casey Mears	Ford	GEICO	93.991
21	55	Brian Vickers	Toyota	RKMotors Charlotte.com	93.949
22	95	Scott Speed	Ford	Leavine Family Racing	93.913
23	27	Paul Menard	Chevrolet	Menards / Moen	93.840
24	14	Tony Stewart	Chevrolet	Office Depot / Mobil 1	93.824
25	1	Jamie McMurray	Chevrolet	McDonald's	93.732
26	29	Kevin Harvick	Chevrolet	Rheem	93.728
27	38	David Gilliland	Ford	1-800LoanMart	93.524
28	32	Boris Said	Ford	HendrickCars.com	93.268
29	34	David Ragan	Ford	Green 1 High Performance Green	93.166
30	43	Aric Almirola	Ford	Medallion Financial	93.153
31	78	Regan Smith	Chevrolet	Furniture Row / Farm American	93.064
32	36	Dave Blaney	Chevrolet	Tommy Baldwin Racing	92.964
33	98	David Mayhew	Ford	Phil Parsons Racing	92.833
34	7	Robby Gordon	Dodge	MAPEI / SaveMart Supermarkets	92.563
35	31	Jeff Burton	Chevrolet	Wheaties	92.459
36	87	Joe Nemechek	Toyota	AM/FM Energy Wood/Pellet Stoves	92.140
37	19	Chris Cook	Toyota	Humphrey Smith Racing	92.076
38	49	J.J. Yeley	Toyota	America Israel Racing / JPO Absorbents	91.927
39	93	Travis Kvapil	Toyota	Burger King / Dr Pepper	91.836
40	26	Josh Wise*	Ford	MDS Transport	91.729
41	10	Tomy Drissi+	Chevrolet	Ice Age Continental Drift	90.579
42	83	Landon Cassill+	Toyota	Burger King / Dr Pepper	89.341
43	33	Stephen Leicht*	Chevrolet	Little Joes Autos.com	91.686
Out
44	30	Brian Simo	Toyota	Inception Motorsports	91.078